Was Eddard a hostage in the Vale?

I don't think we have any reason to make this assumption. Rhaegar, like Aemon, was a reader. Among intellectual Targaryens, we find like-interest in the ptwp prophecy. It seems more likely to me that such interest came from research, rather than a "royal sire" Rhaegar didn't much like.

If we want to draw a familial attachment to the prophecy, Aemon would seem a more likely source to nurture such interests in Rhaegar than Aerys.

Of course Aemon would be more likely to nurture and discuss the prophecy with Rhaegar than Aerys would have been but that does not mean Aerys was any less invested in the prophecy. With Jaehaerys demanding a marriage between him and his sister because of it, both Aerys and Rhaella must have been under great pressure to have children because any one of these could have been the promised child. I doubt that the two were blissfully unaware of the prophecy. Rhaella and Aerys pressed on despite all the stillbirths, the children that did not survive and the damaging effects on Rhaella's health. Aerys went as far as exterminating a wet nurse and her family because he suspected her of poisoning his child. He then went on make penance for his sins and fasted, vowing never to stray from his wife in the quest for a healthy child. He took every precaution he could to keep Viserys alive. It's easy to assume that all he cared about was securing the succession to the throne but what if his real concern centered around fathering the promised prince? I would not overlook his desire for a Volantene bride for Rhaegar either. If I recall correctly, when Targs looked for brides outside of the family, the stuck to families within Westeros. There may have been an exception or two but that was very rare. Volantis is the home of people of the Old Blood, of the high born who can presumably trace their descent directly to Valyria, to king's blood and to the blood of the dragon (whereby I believe king's blood stems from an inheritance older than Valyria). Rhaegar's studies may have opened up insights to these matters hitherto unknown but Aerys was also an educated man. Why should he not have been familiar with the histories and legends of his family or of Old Valyria and tried to act on them? Even Viserys, whose formal education was cut off at an early age spoke of waking his dragon, of king's blood and of the blood of Old Valyria. As such, that he seemed to know nothing of the prophecy and even less of dragonlore can be attributed to the fact that he lost his family at a young age. It seems to me this was definitely a big issue in the family as a whole. 

But to get back to the reason why establishing Aerys' obsession with the prophecy or indeed with the idea of waking dragons is important - Ned's statement to Robert. As stdaga pointed out:


Is Ned talking nonsense here or can we infer that the murder of children by Aerys Targaryen is connected to one of the secrets he kept for 14 years, or even to the idea that Ned might have been a hostage at the Vale? Was Aerys really involved in the murder of children and if so, why? I put forward some proposals on the issue in my first reply to this thread on page 2, namely that he may have been sacrificing his own bastard children for the production of wildfire. shymaid spotted a possible link to the use of his own king's blood in the frequent cuttings he received from the Iron Throne. Melisandre's and Stannis' arcs offer enough parallels to a child sacrifice/king's blood scenario. We accept unconditionally that Aerys was mad but was he really as mentally unstable as we think? We don't condone Stannis' intent to sacrifice his nephew but stop short at saying he was mad. 

So I'll put forward another line of speculation. What if Aerys knew exactly what he was doing but feigned madness in an effort to carry out what would have certainly been considered atrocities by all and sundry, including the burning of his opponents and the murder of children? Would his confidants have been more likely to fear a madman and thus put up with his crap in the name of madness? Fools and madmen may act and talk with nigh impunity because nobody takes them seriously (or in this case, simply apply a classification of madness). Dontos was a knight turned fool and he played that role to the best of his ability to keep his place among the living. Was Aerys really sexually aroused by witnessing men burning or did the burning have a more sinister purpose? I propose the taint of madness could be a good cover-up for experimentally burning victims as a sacrificial act prior to sleeping with his wife in an effort to produce a promised prince.  Same with the murdered children, for whatever magical purpose. Murdering his bastards borne by ladies in waiting (or other women for that matter) would also fall under the cover-up of "madness." There are many instances in the text in which madness is coupled with people knowing exactly what they are doing:

When Jamie prepares to attack Ned and his men outside LF's brothel, the following ensues:


Daenarys putting a dragon egg in the fire:

After Ned informs Cersei that he knows of her deception:


Ned knew what he must do. It wasn't madness, it was mercy, and here we are talking about saving bastard children. 

Daenerys again, this time binding MMD to a stake as a burnt offering. She wasn't mad. She knew what she must do. 



Is it so far fetched that Aerys too thought he knew what he must do? Knew that sacrificing a king's blood (his own or his bastard children's blood) might  lead to increasing the potency of wildfire,
that sacrificing noblemen of high birth might be the answer to fulfilling a promised prince prophecy or that sacrificing his own flesh and blood (Rhaenys and Aegon)
might lead to him being awoken as a dragon? He can't have thought that simply burning himself would produce the desired effect - Summerhall and all the other 
examples had already proven negative on that score. Mayhaps he wasn't mad at all. Mayhaps he had some information from the Alchemists, from old texts and from trial and error and maybe he acted on whatever garbled information he had. Even Daenerys had no precise information but she went ahead anyway in the assumption that it would work. Her ancestors also thought they knew what they were doing and failed. 

So, as I speculated before, the Starks knowing of Aerys sacrifice of children because Lady Stark (Rickard's wife) herself fell victim to it would be a good reason for Ned's status as a hostage in the Vale. It would also explain Ned's very strong feelings on the matter - a brother or sister of his may have been sacrificed - this would have been an added incentive for Ned to bring up Jon Snow as his own son. This bit is only speculation, I know, and I'm yet to find any evidence on this line of thought. GRRM is decidedly tight-lipped on Lady Stark. 

I never looked at the "wake the dragon" idea before as maybe being a Targaryen bed time story. It does kind of make sense. But Viserys uses it as a threat, but in actuality, the Targaryens wanted to "wake dragons" as a benefit to themselves, and did some crazy ass shit while trying.


The first bolded item indicates to me that Jaehaerys II believed in the prophecy, because he married his children to full fill it. But as for Aerys, there is really no indication that he was trying to fullfill prophecy, as much as he was just trying to keep the bloodline as pure as possible. There was really no one suitable for Rhaegar to marry in Westeros at this time. Even Elia didn't have a huge amount of Targaryen blood. Aemon tells us that Rhaegar believed in the prophecy, and that they shared information, but Aemon never tells us anything about Aerys being interested in the prophecy. Aerys might have been, as he thought he would be reborn as a dragon in the fires of Kings Landing, but this might not actually have anything to do with a prophecy. Still, if Aerys was focused on this prophecy, it could explain his fascination with fire and death by fire, and children conceived after someone died by fire.


I suppose Jaime didn't know what Tywin was capable of. But I think it does bother Jaime, as Rhaegar and his children play a big roll in Jaime's weirwood stump dream.


Jamie doesn't regret killing Aerys at all. The judgement he gets over his choice does bother him. It makes him incredibly angry and cynical, but he never shows regret. Jaime reacted in the heat (pardon the pun) of the moment, and killed Aerys, when what he probably should have done was knock him over the head and gag and tie him up. Aerys would have faced execution I have no doubt, after a trial, and Jaime's honor could have remained intact. Protecting Aerys could be defined as protecting Aerys from himself! But that ship sailed the minute Jaime spilled Aerys blood!




Ooohh! This is very interesting. I will have to think on this a bit. If Jaime saw himself as a hostage to Aerys, and Ned was a hostage held by Jon Arryn for Aerys, it does stand to reason that Jaime would have probably felt like the Neddard might have slapped him on the back and gave him a cigar instead of the icy condemnation that he got.

I don't think Ned's reaction is so odd, however. From his perspective, Jaime was a figurative hostage only, in actuality, Jaime had sworn an oath to protect Aerys life at the risk of his own life. And Jaime did not fullfil THAT pledge. Such a complicated set of events!

I also think Ned probably wanted to pass judgement on Aerys and swing that sword. After all, Aerys was responsible for killing Rickard and Brandon, and maybe was responsible for horrible things happening to Lyanna. I think part of Ned feels like Jaime cheated him out of the justice that Ned was due!

As to why Jaime might have expected a different reaction from Ned, I am really going to give this a think, because it might fit very well into my theory. Thanks for the idea!


I have the World Book but have not read the whole thing, just bits and pieces I find interesting. I also like the pictures and one of the pictures in that book is what makes me think we are going to get a 4th dragon (of ice or fire, I don't know, but I think a 4th Dragon Is Coming! 

This would fit the idea of Garth Greenhand, and I believe that Bran the Builder might have been a son or brother of Garth Greenhand, but my knowledge on this is not very strong.

The Grey King was a king who was said to have ruled the Iron Islands for over 1000 years, is rumored to have killed the Sea Dragon Nagga, and almost all families from the Iron Islands claim decent from him. He claimed that his power came from the Drowned God, and that his wife was a mermaid. He is attributed to bringing fire to the earth by tricking the Storm God into setting a tree on fire with lightening, a bit Prometheus-like. I read a theory once that hinted that the Grey King also might have descended from Garth Greenhand, but I don't remember much about it besides that.




Do you think that Aerys did not think that Rhaegar was that promised prince, or do you think Aerys just wanted more sons to hedge his bets?


Exactly! I think that all of Aerys awful behaviors and choices get a hand wave and "oh, he was mad" as an explanation, but I really question if Aerys didn't have great intent with his deeds!



This is great! I am intrigued by this idea!



Maybe not! Wow! It's one of those things I have wondered about when I was in my stage of question everything that we think we know and maybe the opposite is true, but this actually gives that idea some merit. We don't think Dany is "mad" yet, but she has done questionable things.


I have never heard anything like this in a theory before and it's honestly pretty interesting.
I like it, of course, because it lends some type of reasoning to my theory, but also because it is a possible explanation for those "children" that Ned claims he and Robert went to war for.

Here's a tinfoil what if for you evolett, We know that Viserys was 8-9 years old during the rebellion and might have been conceived 8-9 years plus 9 months before (I'm going to make my timeline like GRRM's, which is vague), so what might have happened at the time of his conception or birth? It would be around the time that Eddard would have been sent to the vale, and if that correlates to something that might have happened with Lyarra Stark and a child she might have bore to Aerys, who might have be sacrificed to bring about the conception/birth of Viserys, the first child of Aerys and Rhaella's that lived since Rhaegar was born. Could all of those things be connected. 

Even if you don't count my idea on Ned as a hostage, one would look at the timeline around Viserys' conception and determine how this might be effected by a sacrifice. Lyarra was a Stark by blood as well as marriage, so if she and Aerys did have a child, this would be a child of ice and fire. Strong magic, one would think.  I have thought there must be a connection between Rickard's death by fire and Daenerys' conception (although, I am not sure Dany is actually Aerys and Rhaella's but ...) and maybe even Ned's death and the birth of Dany's dragons. A sacrifice of ice makes the fire stronger ...

Sometimes I think we think about this more that GRRM does! 

Definitely. And you're 100% correct.

I think this family tree comes from GRRM-alone, in spite of it only being offerered in the world book, but it is notable how quiet he has been about Stark lineages and ancestry in the novels. I have a hunch GRRM has kept quiet on such matters because he didn't want to let on that the Starks were not at all against the practice of incest. And, I suspect he only released it in the world book, along with that of House Targaryen, because of the popularity of RLJ herring.

No, he does not regret that kill! I do think voice idea of him being Rhaegars Catpaw might have some merrit, so that is probably reflecting in my thinking. Rhaegar using the word crutch in his final words to Jamie is very interesting.
Haha, as this could get me on another tangent (Jamie is a favorite, and I love his arc! Not defending the pushing of children out of towers, mind!) I'll try to make this short.
He always repeats something in line with "It always comes back to Aerys." in his frustrations on being mistrusted. That part bothers him, no doubt. I've speculated that it could be that nobody asked why he did it, and he just wrapped himself in a white cloak of silence instead. Creating that situation himself. I've not been able to pin it down to my satisfaction, something's there methinks! Enter Ned and the throneroom. It seems very important!


Jamie was not like his father and sister at that time, and still isn't imo, he really was a young honorable man.
It was his big faliure in life, I think.


Thank you!
I've pondered the scene in the throneroom alot! And I see I worded myself very vague of what I found odd. I understand Ned's icy silence, that is Ned! What I find odd is Jamies strong feelings towards Ned in general and so many years later. He only roars at the wolf, no one else if my headcannon is correct. In his chapters retelling what happened in KL and weirwood dream, I just got the feeling that something was off and haven't found a good answer.
If Jamie expected a popsickle an icy sigar is hard to say, but a nod (of approval?) at the very least. When his fathers men enter, I think they thought he did it on Tywins orders (Reynes and Castamere); Jamie might not like their reaction, or lack there of. But it seems Ned is the one to push him into his white cloak of silence.

I need to think on this some more too!


Oh, interesting!


Other than what is in the 5 main books, all I have is from secondary sources. That is a thin twig of speculation indeed. I hope to get the book soon, maybe christmas at the latest. I feel a little handicapped without all the books. Dunk & Egg is also high on my list!


Ah, that's right! I find the Iron Islands a bit boring to be honest, but that might be because the story is so large. Hard to keep track and muster engagement in all parts. I read the books back to back in short order too.

They must have kept it civil there yes. I'm so curious of what Ned was going to say! One of many times I want to reach in and slap Robert so hard he falls off his horse! It was way more than just Jamie sitting on the throne for some minutes! He knew Robert wouldn't see that as something big, and that in it self might not be Ned's big problem.
 
Sidenote: I noticed that at the welcoming feast at WF Jamie was wearing a black cloak. I found that a bit curious, as he of course is a white cloak, and every other time I remember he wears either that or some other color. Only once does he wear black, he does it in WF and in a chapter where the Watch is a heavy feature (Jon I, I think)


It is interesting Ned remember that clearly! So Jamie has for some reason stuck in his mind it seems.


This is possible. I don't really know what more to say, as I have no oppinion myself on who the mystery knight were. Starting the investigation of the books is like having a 100 course meal, with all dishes served at once... Where to start?!?


Haha, been there many times! Some posts take me an hour to write, not because of length but to sort my thoughts into something coherent for others to understand!

Just one clarification: Did you mean that Ned and Jamie talked about this when they took down Pyke?


Ah, it might be the vikingish thing that turns me off... I find that culture and history very interesting, and dislike the popculture picture we are given. Like, the show Vikings is so well researched that they used Vulcan instead of Thor... C'mon!
Anyway, it might be better in the second run. I will give it an honest try at the very least! There are interesting aspects, but first time through they drowned (no pun intended) in parts I didn't like.

It is the series that keep giving! Just rereading a phrase or a paragraph can make you notice something new, or see a connection you really didn't see possible. I love it!

I think it's interesting that at the feast at Winterfell, Jaime is dressed in red and black, which are Targaryen color's. Jon also notes that he thinks "this is what a king should look like" when he see's Jaime, and Jon is very disappointed in Robert, both in behavior and appearece. I think it foreshadow's the possibility of Jaime as a Targaryen, but also maybe Jaime as a king. In GRRM outline, his initial thought was for Jaime to have usurped the throne from his own children, and while I don't think that will happen, Jaime could end up on the throne still before the end. Time will tell.


There is an interesting connection between Ned and Jaime, although I am not sure why. They are set up to be opposites, in behavior and choices, but I think they are more similar than we are led to believe.


No, I don't think they ever talked/argued at Pyke, but they probably should have. Settled their differences, had a fist fight, something to break the tension. I imagine Jaime was brash and sarcastic and Ned glowered at him with icy eyes. I just would imagine they probably had some type of interaction while at Pyke, while planning the storming of the castle, even if it was casual. I can't imagine they didn't see each other at all. But I don't think anything happened to make their situation worse.


Yes, Lady Stark is a non entity in the show as well. At least Joanna Lannister get's a mention from time to time.


So maybe during pregnancy, some choice has to be made, for the survival of the child or the survival of the dragon? Dany chose her "dragon" over her son, but maybe many other Targaryen women chose their unborn children's lives over the "dragon"!

The genetics angle is intersting and one I would have never thought to look at. I watched a video series last year from Preston Jacobs and it was all about the genes a Targaryen might carry that would make them a dragon rider, a dragon hatcher, both or neither. Not sure how correct he is, but it was interesting and it had never been on my radar at all before that.


Well, I admit that I only included the possibility of Robert as a hostage because Aerys demanded his head, too. But I also question that Aerys actually ever did demand Robert's head. It could be that Jon Arryn lied about that, or it could be that the story changed after the war. The propaganda from the winning side altered the story to make themselves look better.

When Davos speaks with Lord Borell on Sisterton, Lord Borell says "The Mad King had sent to the Eyrie for Stark's head, but Jon Arryn sent him back defiance." ADWD-Davos I. I don't think this is a mistake or misspoken. I have wondered if Eddard's was the only head that Aerys demanded from Jon Arryn. Which makes sense if Ned was a hostage. Aerys can't demand Robert's head because he wasn't a hostage of the crown. Maybe the story had to change to rally people to join the rebellion, people who might not have otherwise fought if the only head demanded was of a rightful hostage of the crown?



I am just doing a Cersei reread (which is painful to be in her head too much) but she slips up and tells Tommen and Margaery "You did very well, Tommen. I would expect no less of you. Jousting is in your blood. One day you shall rule the lists, as your father did." AFFC-Cersei V. So, Cersei knows that Jaime is a great jouster, and no where in the books does anyone deny Jaime's skill. He easily could have been the KOTLT, and a perfect person to be free of suspicion, because everyone thinks he has already gone back to Kings Landing. But, if Ned suspected it was Jaime, and it did cause problems for the Starks, then it does explain why Ned already had bad feelings toward Jaime.

And Jaime does have interesting idea's on honor. We met Jaime after he has murdered the King, became known to all the realm as Kingslayer, and had to watch the woman he loved belong to another man while that other man was actually raising his children. This Jaime is bitter, angry, sarcastic and even hateful, but he wasn't always like that, I would imagine. 

But I think the Jaime that existed before Aerys death and the Sack of KL, was a far different man than the one we first meet. There was a Jaime who wanted nothing more than to listen to the Blackfish talk of war and valor, and is hurt and embarrassed years later when the Blackfish mocks him; a Jaime who was raised to know that knightly honor did mean something; a Jaime who is slowly being reminded of what being a "knight" means by Brienne of Tarth; and as you pointed out, Jaime very much admired Ser Arthur Dayne, who is looked at as one of the greatest knights of the Seven Kingdoms. So, Jaime scolding the squires for their lack of honor might not be so far fetched. 

I have always enjoyed the thought of Lyanna as the KOTLT, but it's not really believable. Being a good rider is one thing, but to ride while balancing a heavy lance and aim and strike other riders from horseback is a skill that takes practice. As a matter of fact, Ser Loras tells Tommen to be a good jouster, Tommen needs to practice every single day until he grows up, and Tommen is only eight at this time. It takes time and practice to be a decent jouster. And we know that while Lyanna did use a practice sword on occasion, Ned makes it very clear in his thoughts, that Lord Rickard did not allow his daughter to have a sword and practice, so any skills she might have acquired would be on the down low. As romantic as the idea seems about Lyanna or Ashara being the KOTLT, I am not sure how believable it is!