Post by kinglittlefinger on Jan 31, 2017 5:45:29 GMT
Man, I can't believe I didn't put this together when writing:
The link between Ethan Glover to Aerys is only one person, and that one person is Aerys's own spymaster, Varys/Rugen, known to patrol the Black Cells as far back as Aerys's days when Ethan would've been a prisoner.
Also, I'm seriously considering rewriting all of part IV and going with an ALJ angle instead of RLJ...
I wouldn't even know where to begin with all the hat tips a post like that would require though, not to mention the downvotes it will probably get on Reddit if I put it there. What do y'all think?
The link between Ethan Glover to Aerys is only one person, and that one person is Aerys's own spymaster, Varys/Rugen, known to patrol the Black Cells as far back as Aerys's days when Ethan would've been a prisoner.
Man, I can't believe I didn't put this together when writing:
The link between Ethan Glover to Aerys is only one person, and that one person is Aerys's own spymaster, Varys/Rugen, known to patrol the Black Cells as far back as Aerys's days when Ethan would've been a prisoner.
Also, I'm seriously considering rewriting all of part IV and going with an ALJ angle instead of RLJ...
I wouldn't even know where to begin with all the hat tips a post like that would require though, not to mention the downvotes it will probably get on Reddit if I put it there. What do y'all think?
I say don't sweat the hat tips, nor the down votes. Fortune favors the bold.
"I can see it. You have more of the north in you than your brothers."
Post by kinglittlefinger on Feb 1, 2017 0:28:36 GMT
Sold! I'm gonna start working on it now, and post it here as its being written so y'all can critique. Debunking RLJ, step by step, for the people that have never heard of or even fathomed Heresy.
P.S. - The Harrenhal Conspiracy got voted Best New Theory for 2016 on the asoiaf subreddit, whoop whoop!
Sold! I'm gonna start working on it now, and post it here as its being written so y'all can critique. Debunking RLJ, step by step, for the people that have never heard of or even fathomed Heresy.
P.S. - The Harrenhal Conspiracy got voted Best New Theory for 2016 on the asoiaf subreddit, whoop whoop!
Sounds very cool!
A few things to keep in mind, tho... Heresy is not anti RLJ, and neither is the Hearth. It's a common misconception, particularly for Heresy. Heresy focuses on the North, rather than the Iron Throne, but it still is a place where favor is commonly given to RLJ.
For we Hearthians, open mindedness and respect for differing ideas is the guiding principle. That respect applies to RLJ as well.
If you'd like a private workspace, the Beach of Dreams is also an option:
It will look like an empty board until you've created a thread in it. It's a feature here that allows people to work on projects/essays/OPs in rough draft form privately before publication on a public thread. Moderators can view the thread and help you with formatting/etc if needed. Once an author is happy with their work and ready to publish, we can move the thread to a public board.
"I can see it. You have more of the north in you than your brothers."
I just stumbled across this thread and read the Reddit information, and some of it is very interesting, some of it borrows from theories in the past (Southron Alliance), and a few things I have a hard time working out in my head. Overall, I like the theory kinglittlefinger , although a few of the details or speculations, I would question.
Theory of multiple factions I enjoyed the idea that there was more than one faction at work in plotting in the realm. It makes sense, because that is how real life is. Lot's of people with lots of agendas. And one side always ready to cross or back stab the other side, if needed! The idea behind the multiple alliances is very smart, and I think this might very well be the case in the broad spectrum. Good work!
The Goal I am not sure that I buy that the north wanted to crown Robert. The story seems to imply that that decision didn't happen until during the war, after Rhaegar's death. But it's worth looking into. I would find it more likely at this point that the alliance would be ready to put someone they could manipulate on the thrown, so not Aerys and not Rhaegar, but maybe Viserys? If they could get Rhaella behind this idea, it might work. It's hard to see Rhaella moving against Rhaegar, but if it was the only way to save his life and keep the throne in the Targaryen family, she might have been persuaded. A young Viserys, with the right hand and advisers would have been a very effective form of controlling the Seven Kingdoms.
Another option might have been simply taking down the Seven Kingdoms and reestablishing multiple, independent kingdoms. It seems someone had proposed that the north might have wanted freedom, but I don't see how one kingdom can back out from the union of kingdoms without the rest wanting to do the same thing. I know the separate kingdoms didn't join the Union of the Seven Kingdoms, like the United States, but either way, if one (kingdom or state) pulls out and gets away with it, then why would the rest not demand independence as well?
Lyanna I have a problem applying Sansa's action of betrayal to Lyanna, though I suppose there are shades of both Arya and Sansa in Lyanna. Arya/Lyanna is much more obvious, but GRRM is subtle and tricky, and why not show us some of Lyanna's story in Sansa's story. But the outright betrayal of her family because she didn't want to be queen, is a hard sell for me.
I could see a young Lyanna unknowingly dropping some information that might have clued Rhaegar's people into the plot's brewing around him. But to outright betray her family, I just don't like it. We know that Sansa is spoiled and kind of shallow when we first meet her, and that is why it's not a surprise when she knowingly betrays Ned's plans to Cersei. As has been pointed out in earlier posts, Sansa has a lot of Catelyn in her. She thinks she knows what is best and makes huge moves that she thinks will benefit many, when the only benefactor is herself.
And I don't buy the Lyanna and Rhaegar connection. Not even if he was investigating the KOTLT, which I honestly don't think he was. I would think the Crown Prince would have someone else help him in his investigation, because honestly if Rhaegar is planning a coups then he sure as shit has better things to do than chase about after some mystery knight; he has his father to unseat or overthrow, however you look at it.
So, I would speculate that Rhaegar drafted some help in searching for the KOTLT, and what better person than his best friend and right hand man Ser Arthur Dayne. I have never felt like Lyanna would have connected with Rhaegar, but that is just a gut feeling, however she might have been tempted by the Sword of the Morning. I can see her slip up and reveal something to him, that was then passed to Rhaegar, but I don't see her directly having this interaction with Rhaegar.
The whole Rhaegar giving Lyanna a crown of roses with hidden thorns in it, does not seem like the thing you would do when someone just helped you. Now, if that was the first time Lyanna realized she had unwittingly fucked up her family's master plan, it makes her none-reaction and Brandon's overreaction make more sense to me. I would agree with the people who believe there was nothing in that crown of roses that spoke of love or admiration or thanks, but it was given as a warning or even an insult toward the Starks. I think those blue roses have a deep meaning to the Stark family, one that Ned made sure his children were not aware of. If he can shut down tales of Ashara Dayne at Winterfell, he can shut down tales of the Stark maiden and Bael the Bard. It might be one of the reason that Winterfell never had many bards that traveled to them, because Ned made it known that they were not welcome!
Eddard doesn't seem to feel any sort of sorrow or unease with Rhaegar's death, so I don't think he gave two shits about the Silver Prince, but he has expressed to Bran sorrow over Arthur Daynes death, and even notes SAD's sad smile in the toj fever dream. Ned might have felt like our Sword of the Morning was drug into a mess that honor and pledges forced him into, and that he ultimately paid with his life for those pledges, to Rhaegar, to the Targaryen's, etc. Kind of sadly similar to Ned's own demise.
Maybe Lyanna was kidnapped to rescue/save her, but why would Aerys really fixate on Lyanna Stark? That could make sense only if she was the KOTLT, and I am not sold on that idea, and it seems like Aerys felt like Jaime Lannister was the most likely guilty of being the mystery knight. Maybe Rhaegar and his buddies just stumbled upon her and decided to take her on a whim. I think we need to look at how Cat just stumbled onto Tyrion at the inn at the crossroads, and decided to take him as a prisoner on "a whim", as Tyrion tells Jon before he leaves the wall, and translate that into how Lyanna might have fallen into the wrong hands. The question is, why was Lyanna in a situation where she could be stumbled onto and taken? Did the wolf blood get her there?
I don't think it was a prearranged type of meeting, I think it was fortuitous, and if Rhaegar was behind it, maybe he thought he was getting himself a decent hostage, to hold against the Stark's and Robert. If this is the case, I speculate that Lyanna was able to escape. Maybe at this point, Rhaegar and Arthur Dayne split up, attempting to find her. I would speculate that Ser Arthur found her, and they might have stumbled into an illicit romance, with Jon being the product of that romance. I think that Jon and Ygriite would be better paralleled to Lyanna and Arthur, rather than Lyanna and Rhaegar. As others have pointed out in ALJ threads, both Jon and Arther were members of orders that took sacred vows and one of the pledges is celibacy.
I am personally not sold on ALJ but I think it's very possible and it certainly has a lot more going for it that RLJ. And it helps me make sense of the star and Dawn imagery in Jon's story. ALJ and NAJ both make sense of those aspects of Jon's story. If ALJ is the case and Arthur and Lyanna married, it could make Jon a contender to be the next Sword of the Morning. It seems those candidates need to be legally thought of as Daynes, although I am not sure if that needs to be just on the paternal side, or it could include maternal pairings, as well.
Lyanna is the wild card here. We know that Ned says she had a "touch" of the wolf blood, so how does that apply to the story. Was she the KOTLT? Was she traveling in the riverlands without escort when she should not have been? How did her "touch" of the wolf blood lead her to an early grave? I don't think it was because she betrayed her family! I think we need to look more to Arya and her behavior to figure this out, and look less to Sansa.
Ethan Glover It really makes sense to me that Ethan Glover might have betrayed the idea of an alliance to the crown. But why did he do this? Was he tortured, was it accidental (he was young, I think), did the Glover's have some plan to take the north from the Starks?
If Glover did have some dealings with Varys, then maybe that is why he survived? Maybe Varys and he worked out a deal as your theory addresses, and that makes sense. But why does Ned take Ethan Glover with him to the toj? Maybe Ethan Glover was part of the information needed to find the toj? Maybe Ned didn't think it odd that Ethan Glover was the only survivor of all the northmen who went to Kings Landing on Aerys order? Personally, I think Ned would have thought that odd indeed. Ned certainly doesn't trust Varys at all, and maybe this stems from his suspicions about Glover and Varys working together. Maybe Glover confessed all to Ned before his death? So many unknowns in this.
On the other hand, of course it seems suspicious that Ethan Glover is the only survivor from the northmen going south, then it almost seems obvious that Glover must be a traitor. Otherwise, how did he alone survive? But GRRM doesn't write obvious without intent, and if things look obvious to us, then we should really investigate further.
Just like we should question the idea that Rhaegar "kidnapped and raped" Lyanna, and that Rhaegar "loved his Lady Lyanna". If it presented to us that bluntly, in back to back chapters I think, then we should darn well be questioning either option.
Now, the fact that Glover survived and therefore must be a spy, isn't placed bluntly in our face, but there is enough there to make me question if he was the spy, but I didn't see it on my own. Maybe he was set up to look like the traitor, to help move attention away from the true traitor. Who that is, I don't have a clue, but I think it's possible that Ethan Glover could have been set up to look guilty. Maybe Ned knows this, and that is one of the reason he trusts Varys not at all. The fact that Cat doesn't know anything about Ethan Glover except that he survived Kings Landing tells us nothing, because her POV's are full of what she thought was true that actually isn't, or on information she never gave a thought to. Like how Rickard and Brandon died, for instance. She is a nosy, meddling woman and I don't see how she never once looked into how her fiance died? She sure as shit asked around Winterfell about Jon's mother and on rumors of Ashara Dayne.
But it's just as possible that Ethan Glover is a rat, and I like how the theory works the concept out.
Rhaegar's Song Your theory speculates that Lyanna must be somewhat like Sansa because she cried at Rhaegar's song, but I don't think that's a strong connection, although I won't deny that there could be some things in Lyanna's story that we are learning through Sansa. However, the difference between the sisters is major, and Eddard notes it, and he associates Arya with Lyanna and the wolf blood. In simple terms, Arya fights her captivity and constantly plots escape, Sansa is passive in her captivity and dreams about rescue.
I know many people speculate that because Lyanna cried at Rhaegar's stupid song, that she must have been in love with him, but I think that is bunk. Every female in our story who heard Rhaegar's song seemed to cry - Lyanna, Cersei, and according to JonCon (who I think wanted to cry also) all the women that Rhaegar sang it to at Griffin's Roost. The song is magic, not Rhaegar, and I don't think it elicits love in people, but sorrow. I like the Summerhall and Rhaegar and the Ghost of High Heart concept, but I don't buy Lyanna as being at Summerhall.
And it's not just Sansa who likes songs and stories, Arya does too! Even our tough as nails, mentally brutalized child soldier Arya cries when she hears the song that the Ghost of High Heart demands that Tom o Seven's sing! (EDIT: I thought Arya cried at this song, but it was tGoHH-oops!) It's not a song that I think Rhaegar even wrote, it is Jenny's song, and I agree he learned it (probably at Summerhall), and maybe it haunted him as much as it haunts every person who hears it. It's not love, it's not the singer, it's the song!
Robert's Movement I do agree with your idea that Robert's movements during the war are a bit odd. I think you are right to speculate that he was chasing Rhaegar, but I just don't think that Lyanna was with Rhaegar. I speculate that Rhaegar could have been with Ashara, but I also think its possible that Ashara or Lyanna could be the Fisherman's daughter, so that really messes with either of them being with Rhaegar. Unless Ned got Ashara/Lyanna out of the Vale, and she eventually made it back south to Rhaegar. It seems unlikely, but we do have some time to work out in the rebellion.
Anyway, Robert's movements are interesting, and I think that you are on to something there. I have never looked into the movements of the armies, but I know many people have. There are people with far more patience than me trying to work out the sketchy timeline. I had read something similar to this in the past, but it might have actually been your theory. I don't spend much time on the Reddit boards, but I do pop over every now and then when I am searching ideas or phrases, and I might have stumbled across the portion of your theory that applies to Robert hunting Rhaegar.
I like it because Robert is a mighty hunter, and this time he was hunting a silver dragon. It took some time, but the hunter eventually slew that mighty dragon!
******* While reading this theory, it felt to me that Arthur and Lyanna is much more likely than Rhaegar and Lyanna.
Overall, I really enjoyed the theory. It was well thought out and works with the text. And you seem open to ideas that help to clarify or make your theory stronger, which is awesome of you!
Last Edit: Sept 2, 2017 0:21:17 GMT by stdaga: grammar and clarity
Their father understood as well. "You want no pup for yourself, Jon?" he asked softly.
The Harrenhal Conspiracy got voted Best New Theory for 2016 on the asoiaf subreddit, whoop whoop!
Congratulations! I've read it a couple of months ago, and it's great! I haven't commented on it as I'm so new to this story (the books, not the show), started in March so it's been a massive info-dump!
I do, but I also have a massive bias as he's my favorite from the RR period! If it turns out he actually died (or dies in the current story) I think I'll cry for a day... I'm in the Artur=Mance camp to be spesific.
The story seems to imply that that decision didn't happen until during the war, after Rhaegar's death.
And yet, Stannis has this to say in Davos IV, SoS:
"It is," he said, calmer. "And I would have it speak the truth. Though the truth is a bitter draught at times. Aerys? If you only knew . . . that was a hard choosing. My blood or my liege. My brother or my king." He grimaced. "Have you ever seen the Iron Throne? The barbs along the back, the ribbons of twisted steel, the jagged ends of swords and knives all tangled up and melted? It is not a comfortable seat, ser. Aerys cut himself so often men took to calling him King Scab, and Maegor the Cruel was murdered in that chair. By that chair, to hear some tell it. It is not a seat where a man can rest at ease. Ofttimes I wonder why my brothers wanted it so desperately."
He indicates that not only Renly was after the throne, but Robert too. Granted, Stannis wasn't close to any of them so it's hard to say if he only thinks Robert wanted the throne, knew for certain or heard enough drips over the years to draw that conclution. So it's possible this was the intention from the start of the rebellion. The question is if Stannis was told this (and if so, when?), if he drew a conclution based on small things he heard, or just thought it for whatever personal reasons. It certainly peaked my interest on my reread! And I've actually had this in the back of my mind for a few weeks, and here this thread is brought up!
And I don't buy the Lyanna and Rhaegar connection. Not even if he was investigating the KOTLT, which I honestly don't think he was. I would think the Crown Prince would have someone else help him in his investigation, because honestly if Rhaegar is planning a coups then he sure as shit has better things to do than chase about after some mystery knight; he has his father to unseat or overthrow, however you look at it.
So, I would speculate that Rhaegar drafted some help in searching for the KOTLT, and what better person than his best friend and right hand man Ser Arthur Dayne. I have never felt like Lyanna would have connected with Rhaegar, but that is just a gut feeling, however she might have been tempted by the Sword of the Morning. I can see her slip up and reveal something to him, that was then passed to Rhaegar, but I don't see her directly having this interaction with Rhaegar.
I actually like Rhaegar, and not a Saint Rhaegar version. Looking into his darker side makes him more interesting to me. Not sold on any sparks between him and Lyanna, but not ruling it out either. The "problem" is that both Arthur and Rhaegar is painted as very saint-like, and that is not her taste methinks. But seeing a darker and more dangerous side combined with high honor I think is, and that can be applied to both as well. I do think Jon is a Stark-Dayne from either NA or AL, so if RL had a kid I might just fall on (f)Aegon as the result. But I haven't looked that deep into him yet.
The Goal I am not sure that I buy that the north wanted to crown Robert. The story seems to imply that that decision didn't happen until during the war, after Rhaegar's death. But it's worth looking into. I would find it more likely at this point that the alliance would be ready to put someone they could manipulate on the thrown, so not Aerys and not Rhaegar, but maybe Viserys? If they could get Rhaella behind this idea, it might work. It's hard to see Rhaella moving against Rhaegar, but if it was the only way to save his life and keep the throne in the Targaryen family, she might have been persuaded. A young Viserys, with the right hand and advisers would have been a very effective form of controlling the Seven Kingdoms.
The point I was making about the North alliance not backing Rhaegar was that they don't gain anything by backing some other Targaryen other than Aerys, and I think this applies to Viserys as well. Also Aerys's feelings of suspicion toward Rhaegar don't apply to Viserys. The reason I think they were backing Robert is because there isn't a reason to call for Robert's head if they weren't conspiring for him, as I argue in part 3.
Another option might have been simply taking down the Seven Kingdoms and reestablishing multiple, independent kingdoms. It seems someone had proposed that the north might have wanted freedom, but I don't see how one kingdom can back out from the union of kingdoms without the rest wanting to do the same thing. I know the separate kingdoms didn't join the Union of the Seven Kingdoms, like the United States, but either way, if one (kingdom or state) pulls out and gets away with it, then why would the rest not demand independence as well?
I think this option makes sense as well for the motives of the Northern alliance, whether the rest demand independence or not is up to them. Ultimately it comes down to what the Iron Throne can enforce, and if more armies want independence, it's going to be hard for the crown to enforce anything outside of the Crownlands.
Lyanna I have a problem applying Sansa's action of betrayal to Lyanna, though I suppose there are shades of both Arya and Sansa in Lyanna. Arya/Lyanna is much more obvious, but GRRM is subtle and tricky, and why not show us some of Lyanna's story in Sansa's story. But the outright betrayal of her family because she didn't want to be queen, is a hard sell for me.
I could see a young Lyanna unknowingly dropping some information that might have clued Rhaegar's people into the plot's brewing around him. But to outright betray her family, I just don't like it. We know that Sansa is spoiled and kind of shallow when we first meet her, and that is why it's not a surprise when she knowingly betrays Ned's plans to Cersei. As has been pointed out in earlier posts, Sansa has a lot of Catelyn in her. She thinks she knows what is best and makes huge moves that she thinks will benefit many, when the only benefactor is herself.
I think Arya gives us a look into Lyanna's character, but Sansa may give us a look into Lyanna's plot. I think I saw SlyWren say that somewhere. And I wasn't arguing that Lyanna was betraying her family intentionally, my argument was that she didn't like Robert and she didn't want to be a queen, and so she tried to subvert that. Obviously, like Sansa, she didn't know it would lead to the death of her father, she was only acting for her own benefit at the time without thinking it through, like any teenager would.
And I don't buy the Lyanna and Rhaegar connection. Not even if he was investigating the KOTLT, which I honestly don't think he was. I would think the Crown Prince would have someone else help him in his investigation, because honestly if Rhaegar is planning a coups then he sure as shit has better things to do than chase about after some mystery knight; he has his father to unseat or overthrow, however you look at it.
So, I would speculate that Rhaegar drafted some help in searching for the KOTLT, and what better person than his best friend and right hand man Ser Arthur Dayne. I have never felt like Lyanna would have connected with Rhaegar, but that is just a gut feeling, however she might have been tempted by the Sword of the Morning. I can see her slip up and reveal something to him, that was then passed to Rhaegar, but I don't see her directly having this interaction with Rhaegar.
I'm an ALJ'er myself NOW, but I hadn't even considered it while I was writing this series. Only after coming here was I exposed to that idea. However, we are explicitly told that Aerys sent Rhaegar to investigate the KotLT, and while I don't think Lyanna WAS the KotLT, I think any plausible investigation of it will LEAD to Lyanna once the squires are interrogated. That's also one of my biggest hang-ups on RLJ, is one of the ONLY lines we get from Lyanna is in regards to how she doesn't like Robert because he won't keep to one bed. But yet, she falls in love with a married man? CAN'T be that simple.
The whole Rhaegar giving Lyanna a crown of roses with hidden thorns in it, does not seem like the thing you would do when someone just helped you. Now, if that was the first time Lyanna realized she had unwittingly fucked up her family's master plan, it makes her none-reaction and Brandon's overreaction make more sense to me. I would agree with the people who believe there was nothing in that crown of roses that spoke of love or admiration or thanks, but it was given as a warning or even an insult toward the Starks.
This is pretty much EXACTLY what I argue, lol. I didn't say anything about hidden thorns or it being a symbol of love, I said it was Rhaegar's way of warning Brandon that he knows their plot and he's not going along with it. It's the only way I've seen that makes sense of the reactions of all parties involved.
Eddard doesn't seem to feel any sort of sorrow or unease with Rhaegar's death, so I don't think he gave two shits about the Silver Prince, but he has expressed to Bran sorrow over Arthur Daynes death, and even notes SAD's sad smile in the toj fever dream.
Maybe Lyanna was kidnapped to rescue/save her, but why would Aerys really fixate on Lyanna Stark? That could make sense only if she was the KOTLT, and I am not sold on that idea, and it seems like Aerys felt like Jaime Lannister was the most likely guilty of being the mystery knight.
Again, exactly what I argued in the theory. That Aerys suspected Jaime first and only switched to Lyanna once he got back to King's Landing and realized that wasn't the case.
Maybe Rhaegar and his buddies just stumbled upon her and decided to take her on a whim. I think we need to look at how Cat just stumbled onto Tyrion at the inn at the crossroads, and decided to take him as a prisoner on "a whim", as Tyrion tells Jon before he leaves the wall, and translate that into how Lyanna might have fallen into the wrong hands. The question is, why was Lyanna in a situation where she could be stumbled onto and taken? Did the wolf blood get her there?
I also draw a parallel on Cat/Tyrion and Rhaegar/Lyanna in the theory, even suggesting it probably took place at the Inn at the Crossroads. Ned definitely feels like her wolf blood played a role in her death.
I don't think it was a prearranged type of meeting, I think it was fortuitous, and if Rhaegar was behind it, maybe he thought he was getting himself a decent hostage, to hold against the Stark's and Robert. If this is the case, I speculate that Lyanna was able to escape. Maybe at this point, Rhaegar and Arthur Dayne split up, attempting to find her. I would speculate that Ser Arthur found her, and they might have stumbled into an illicit romance, with Jon being the product of that romance. I think that Jon and Ygriite would be better paralleled to Lyanna and Arthur, rather than Lyanna and Rhaegar. As others have pointed out in ALJ threads, both Jon and Arther were members of orders that took sacred vows and one of the pledges is celibacy.
Ok, so hear me out, as I've argued this idea since finishing writing this series. Rhaegar takes her as a hostage, she escapes, he sends the 3 Kingsguard after her (I think Rhaegar's half dozen companions include Whent, Dayne, and Lewyn Martell). Arthur's orders are to kill her, but once he catches her, he can't do it. This would parallel Jon, one of 3 sworn brothers, catching Ygritte and not being able to go through with the kill. Maybe that's why she's taken to Dorne (Starfall, specifically, as I'm not sure I believe the ToJ story in regards to Jon's birth).
I am personally not sold on ALJ but I think it's very possible and it certainly has a lot more going for it that RLJ. And it helps me make sense of the star and Dawn imagery in Jon's story. ALJ and NAJ both make sense of those aspects of Jon's story. If ALJ is the case and Arthur and Lyanna married, it could make Jon a contender to be the next Sword of the Morning.
Ding, ding, ding! I think SotM is Jon's ultimate destiny. I think this is why I was never really satisfied with how I ended this series after part 4, something seemed off with Jon being born at the ToJ as generally believed, and I couldn't put my finger on it until coming here and discovering ALJ.
Ethan Glover It really makes sense to me that Ethan Glover might have betrayed the idea of an alliance to the crown. But why did he do this? Was he tortured, was it accidental (he was young, I think), did the Glover's have some plan to take the north from the Starks?
If Glover did have some dealings with Varys, then maybe that is why he survived? Maybe Varys and he worked out a deal as your theory addresses, and that makes sense. But why does Ned take Ethan Glover with him to the toj? Maybe Ethan Glover was part of the information needed to find the toj? Maybe Ned didn't think it odd that Ethan Glover was the only survivor of all the northmen who went to Kings Landing on Aerys order? Personally, I think Ned would have thought that odd indeed. Ned certainly doesn't trust Varys at all, and maybe this stems from his suspicions about Glover and Varys working together. Maybe Glover confessed all to Ned before his death? So many unknowns in this.
I agree, a lot of unanswered questions, but Varys definitely was patrolling the Black Cells as Rugen as far back as Aerys's time. Ethan Glover was definitely in the Black Cells, and after the Sack he's part of Ned's group that goes south. This is one of the parts of the series I'm most certain about though. Everything just fits.
I know many people speculate that because Lyanna cried at Rhaegar's stupid song, that she must have been in love with him, but I think that is bunk. Every female in our story who heard Rhaegar's song seemed to cry - Lyanna, Cersei, and according to JonCon (who I think wanted to cry also) all the women that Rhaegar sang it to at Griffin's Roost. The song is magic, not Rhaegar, and I don't think it elicits love in people, but sorrow.
Agree, in fact we are specifically told that the Children of the Forest makes music so sweet it makes people cry when they hear it, and Ghost of High Heart wanting "my Jenny's song" in exchange for info and Rhaegar knowing or maybe even writing that song fits like a glove as well. Maybe Lyanna was with him at Summerhall, maybe not. That part was pure speculation.
Robert's Movement I do agree with your idea that Robert's movements during the war are a bit odd. I think you are right to speculate that he was chasing Rhaegar, but I just don't think that Lyanna was with Rhaegar. I speculate that Rhaegar could have been with Ashara.
Similar to the KotLT, it doesn't matter if she is or isn't. Only that everyone BELIEVES she is with Rhaegar, that's enough for Robert to follow him south.
While reading this theory, it felt to me that Arthur and Lyanna is much more likely than Rhaegar and Lyanna.
Overall, I really enjoyed the theory. It was well thought out and works with the text. And you seem open to ideas that help to clarify or make your theory stronger, which is awesome of you!
I'm leaning toward ALJ myself, and WISH I had that in my head before writing Part 4 and ending with the stereotypical RLJ at the ToJ. I'm fairly certain RAD was the ToJ, and Ned allowed Ashara and her baby to leave safely, and also claimed Arthur's son as his own bastard, thus protecting his reputation as a Kingsguard knight. To me, this perfectly sums up why Ned would be revered enough by the Daynes to warrant naming their son after him. And there also happens to be a masked Westerosi woman following Daenerys and making sure she stays on track and remembers who she is.
He indicates that not only Renly was after the throne, but Robert too. Granted, Stannis wasn't close to any of them so it's hard to say if he only thinks Robert wanted the throne, knew for certain or heard enough drips over the years to draw that conclution. So it's possible this was the intention from the start of the rebellion. The question is if Stannis was told this (and if so, when?), if he drew a conclution based on small things he heard, or just thought it for whatever personal reasons.
It is interesting wording that Stannis uses, about his "brothers" wanting the throne. GRRM does like to slide clues in very subtly, and that could indicate that Robert did have a different motive than we have been led to believe. That would fit the idea that this theory proposes, that Robert was the planned monarch even before the first battle of the war.
However, if I was Stannis, holding Storm's End during an awful seige, and he knows his brother has marched his army north, and didn't march it back to help liberate his own castle, it might look to Stannis that Robert chose the throne over ending the seige of Storm's End and rescuing his people and his brother. Stannis could definitely feel then that both Robert and Renly "chose" the throne!
And at some point, Robert did want the throne, or he never would have allowed himself to be declared King!
The "problem" is that both Arthur and Rhaegar is painted as very saint-like,
I think that every character we have who "seems" to be so "knightly" or "perfect" certainly is not. And I think that applies to Ned, too, whom I love! I think it's on the Arthur plus Lyanna (A+L=J) Who's your Mommy (and Daddy) page, the fact that Arthur might not be so shiny and perfect is addressed.
I see this to be the case for Rhaegar as well. But we don't know much about either Rhaegar or Arthur, actually. There is a lot of story left to be told in regards to those gentlemen, me thinks, that makes them seem more like real people who make good and bad choices, and not "perfect" and "shining". And I think the Neddard is going to fall a bit further, too!
Their father understood as well. "You want no pup for yourself, Jon?" he asked softly.