The Iron King's Great Victory In The Snow

“We all know what my brother would do. Robert would gallop up to the gates of Winterfell alone, break them with his warhammer, and ride through the rubble to slay Roose Bolton with his left hand and the Bastard with his right." Stannis rose to his feet. "I am not Robert. But we will march, and we will free Winterfell … or die in the attempt."

Introduction

The purpose of this essay will be to examine why Stannis Baratheon, contrary to the accounts of the Pink Letter and season 5 of the TV series Game of Thrones, will also be successful in taking Winterfell from the Boltons. This will be done by examining the following pieces of information

- The current strength of the North

- The Battle of the Crofter’s Village

- The Pink Letter

- Various visions

- Conditions in Winterfell

Having laid the groundwork for the battle, this essay will next examine and analyze the following

- The conclusions that can be drawn from the prior analysis and how I believe the battle will unfold

- Why Stannis must be the one to retake Winterfell if the Boltons are to fall any time soon

Before finally examining the next move Stannis could make or will make after taking Winterfell, and then concluding with a brief summary of the major arguments put forward in this essay.

First and foremost, we must dive into exactly what Stannis is facing, and what Stannis himself is bringing to the table.

Northern Numbers currently on the field

Stannis had taken Deepwood Motte, and the mountain clans had joined him. Flint, Norrey, Wull, Liddle, all.

And we had other help, unexpected but most welcome, from a daughter of Bear Island. Alysane Mormont, whose men name her the She-Bear, hid fighters inside a gaggle of fishing sloops and took the ironmen unawares where they lay off the strand. Greyjoy’s longships are burned or taken, her crews slain or surrendered. The captains, knights, notable warriors, and others of high birth we shall ransom or make other use of, the rest I mean to hang …

The Night’s Watch was sworn to take no side in the quarrels and conflicts of the realm. Nonetheless, Jon Snow could not help but feel a certain satisfaction. He read on.

… more northmen coming in as word spreads of our victory. Fisherfolk, freeriders, hillmen, crofters from the deep of the wolfswood and villagers who fled their homes along the stony shore to escape the ironmen, survivors from the battle outside the gates of Winterfell, men once sworn to the Hornwoods, the Cerwyns, and the Tallharts. We are five thousand strong as I write, our numbers swelling every day. And word has come to us that Roose Bolton moves toward Winterfell with all his power, there to wed his bastard to your half sister. He must not be allowed to restore the castle to its former strength. We march against him. Arnolf Karstark and Mors Umber will join us. I will save your sister if I can, and find a better match for her than Ramsay Snow. You and your brothers must hold the Wall until I can
return.

From the above, we learn a great many things about Stannis’ forces. We learn such things as:

- The mountain clans have marched with Stannis
- House Mormont has sworn fealty to Stannis
- House Glover has been freed
- The important ironborn have been taken captive
- Northerners such as Cerwyns, Tallharts, and Hornwoods, as well as many regular folk, are flocking to Stannis’ banner as news of his victory spreads
- Mors Umber has not yet joined Stannis’ force, though he has sworn to do so
- House Karstark has sworn fealty to Stannis, though they have not yet joined him
- His host numbers 5,000 strong at the time of his writing, and is growing larger every day

Thus we get a good look at just how many men Stannis has shortly after the fall of Deepwood Motte. It’s 5,000. But rather, it’s truly 6,200+. You see, Stannis has other troops that aren’t counted among that 5,000 count, which is in itself slightly unreliable due to the fact that his numbers are swelling daily anyways (but will still be used as it’s simply less complicated than using unknown numbers). Those troops though are however troops from House Umber, House Karstark, and House Manderly.

Now from the opening, we know that Mors Umber has sworn fealty to Stannis, yet has not yet joined his host. We don’t know the exact number of men that Mors controls, but we do know that Theon states that House Umber split its forces, with all the old men going with Whoresbane, and all the green boys with Mors.



For the sake of simplicity, I will simply take the text at face value here: Mors has half of House Umbers remaining forces which are the young boys. Again, we don’t know Mors exact numbers, but we do know that Hother on the other hand has 400 old men.



If Hother has 400, then so likely does Mors. Thus Stannis has at least 5,400 men when you consider the 400 Mors has.

We also know that Arnolf Karstark, while a turncloak himself, arrives in Stannis’ army with 456 men



Arnolf is a turncloak and means to turn on Stannis, but none of his men know that. They’re all there simply to fight when told to fight, and Stannis is confident they’ll follow whoever he makes the new Lord of Karhold too. Thus Stannis’ army is at minimum 5,856 strong once you include House Umber and House Karstark.

We also know that Lord Davos has secured House Manderly’s support for Stannis, provided that Davos can secure Rickon. We know that Manderly rode to Winterfell with 300 men.



Again, Manderly is a secret Stannis supporter, which means that those 300 men are actually Stannis’ men. Thus that means that Stannis forces are actually 6,156 strong once you account for House Umber, House Karstark, and House Manderly.

But we’re still not done, because those Manderly numbers aren’t quite right, as we also know that Wyman purposely didn’t bring all his forces to Winterfell. We know this because he says the following to Davos when he pledges his support to Stannis’ cause



Manderly says that alone he still has more heavy horse than any lord north of the Neck. We know he can’t possibly have brought all his troops to Winterfell if he only has 100 knights in Winterfell, given that that that can’t account for having the most cavalry of anybody in the north as at least houses like the Ryswells, Dustins, and Boltons have to have hundreds each. Hell, those 100 knights in Winterfell would only fulfill the further 100 landed knights sworn to his service… while still not including any of THEIR men sworn to their service, which would include knights and lancers. Nor do we have any of the men manning those warships hidden along the White Knife. Or the men sworn to those dozen petty lords.

And he’s promising also that he’ll deliver Lady Flint and Lord Locke with whatever troops they have. Lord Locke, as we’ll cover, is currently with Roose inside Winterfell, which means that Stannis has another turncloak there too. Lady Flint hasn’t made any moves, but Manderly says she’ll follow him.

The point is though is that Manderly seemingly has hundreds, if not thousands of troops at his command still, yet he only came to Winterfell with 300. And Manderly pledged himself to Stannis, making it that Stannis has hundreds, if not thousands of Manderly, Locke, and Flint troops.

So while we can only give a rough estimate, Stannis should be able to, when all is said and down, at minimum have 6,200+ forces on his side, if not 7,000+. And yes, I am aware that some of Stannis’ forces die on his march to the crofter’s village. But with the idea that men are/were flocking to his banners, and with all the hidden Manderly forces, they’re clearly offset. It’s still a reasonable estimate, short of Stannis having lost thousands of men. Which he didn’t.

And note that I’m not saying that Stannis’ army is 7,000+ strong, but simply that that’s what his available forces are. We know that Mors for instance is harrying the Freys, and who knows where Manderly's are. But simply instead that these are all the men sworn to Stannis, and therefore contribute to the total size of his forces. 400 Umbers might not be with Stannis’ army, but the Freys still need to go through those 400 men before they can even get to Stannis’ army.

So now that we’ve covered Stannis’ forces, it’s time to cover the Boltons forces.

Firstly, Theon notes that Roose returns north with 3,600 northmen



Robb marched south with 18,000 men, 18,000 x 0.2 = 3,600

Accompanying Roose are the Freys, and they number 1,400



That means that Roose marched north with an army 5,000 strong between the survivors of the Red Wedding and the Freys.

Meeting Roose was an unknown army of Ryswells, Dustins, Cerwyns, and Hornwoods, 600 Boltons, and 400 hundred Umbers



Now as I said, there’s no specific numbers for what some of these armies were… at least not individually. Jon however says the following when he hears that Ramsay and Roose are set to join their armies



Stannis had 1,200 men when he sailed from Dragonstone, and 1,200 x 5 = 6,000 men. Which is actually exactly what you’d expect from Roose’s 5,000 Boltons and Freys, Hother’s 400 Umbers, and Ramsay’s 600 Boltons. However, you’re still missing the Ryswells, Dustins, Cerwyns, and Hornwoods that were also present. And Lady Barbrey mentions that she sent the bare minimum of Dustin troops south with Robb, and I’m inclined to believe the Ryswells, her former house, also did the same. And therefore, I’m inclined to instead think that Jon, or rather GRRM, is probably also including Stannis’ 300 wildlings that he possessed too in his 5:1 count. Which then gives us

1,500 x 5 = 7,500

Which seems like an entirely reasonable number when you take into account the entirety of the assembled Bolton forces which are the following



Now if you’ve made it this far, you might’ve noticed something. I pegged Stannis’ forces anywhere from 6,200-7,000+. I also just pegged the Bolton forces are anywhere from 6,000-7,500. The numbers are pretty much equal. This is not a case of Stannis being vastly outnumbered as is commonly assumed. Yes, he’ll lose some men in the Battle of Ice, and some of his forces aren’t near his main army, but he’s still in a position of relatively equal power with the Boltons.

So of course, we need to discuss how that first clash is going to go. Because before Winterfell can fall, Stannis must win the upcoming battle at the crofters village.

The Battle of Ice

"I see you all want blood," the Lord of the Dreadfort said. Maester Rhodry stood beside him, a raven on his arm. The bird's black plumage shone like coal oil in the torchlight. Wet, Theon realized. And in his lordship's hand, a parchment. That will be wet as well. Dark wings, dark words. "Rather than use our swords upon each other, you might try them on Lord Stannis." Lord Bolton unrolled the parchment. "His host lies not three days' ride from here, snowbound and starving, and I for one am tired of waiting on his pleasure. Ser Hosteen, assemble your knights and men-at-arms by the main gates. As you are so eager for battle, you shall strike our first blow. Lord Wyman, gather your White Harbor men by the east gate. They shall go forth as well."

Now from the above we know that Roose Bolton unleashes the Freys and the Manderlys on Stannis. As has already been discussed, the Frey force is 1,400 strong, and the Manderlys are 300 strong. This means that there is a force of 1,700 men descending on Stannis’ army.

We also know that by this time Mors Umbers has arrived in this area, and is attacking the Freys as he kills Aenys Frey outside Winterfell. Mors, as has already been estimated at, has 400 men. Arnolf Karstark and his 456 men have also already arrived at the crofter’s village by this point. Stannis already had his 5,000 men from Deepwood Motte. That means that Stannis’ army is roughly 5,856 strong at the upcoming battle of the crofter’s village.

So it’s 1,700 vs 5,856. Stannis outnumbers his enemies just over 3:1. And it also should be noted that 300 of the “enemy” force are actually secret supporters of Stannis in the Manderlys. So really it’s 1,400 vs 6,156, or just over 4:1 odds in favour of Stannis.

So numerically, the odds highly favour Stannis.

As to the composition of their armies, Stannis says the following



On a simple read through, this seems like the Freys have the advantage. And normally they would. But keep in mind, Stannis himself had a lot of horse. The key word there being HAD. His horses died on the march, they couldn’t deal with the weather. The Freys have a much shorter march than Stannis did and won’t lose anywhere near as many horses, but horses don’t do well in snow. And there’s plenty of that at the crofter’s village. Rather than the Freys cavalry being an advantage, it will probably be completely nullified by the fact that those horses simply won’t be able to charge like they normally would. They’ll be plowing through snow drifts knee like everybody else, making them just as slow as everybody else too. The terrible weather actually helps Stannis against these type of southern knights.

Which ties in nicely with the next point: the terrain of the crofter’s village



To put it bluntly, it’s pretty shit at the village. Everything is covered in snow, and you can’t see a damn thing. I’ve already discussed why I think this can actually be beneficial to Stannis’ cause rather than detrimental, and there are some great theories like the Night Lamp theory that also touch on exactly what Stannis can do with his environment. Because make no mistake, Stannis is planning on making his stand at the crofter’s village, and he does have a plan for why that is: because of some terrain advantage he has:



Stannis has a plan, and if it’s a plan that Theon can’t even figure out, let alone Roose who agreed to send the Freys and Manderlys there in the first place (barring Roose actively tossed away anywhere from 1/3 to ¼ of his army), I’m inclined to believe it will be a good one and will catch Hosteen Frey off guard too. And of course, we must indeed discuss Hosteen Frey in all of this as he’s the one leading the troops coming for Stannis.

Now once again, Stannis seems prepared for Hosteen, and is grateful that it’s Hosteen coming instead of his brother Aenys, who Theon had noted was a strategist between the two of them, while Hosteen was a fierce but angry warrior



Which means that Stannis is actually facing the lesser commander of the Frey forces than he would’ve been had his Umber troops not already struck first and killed Aenys… which likely angered Hosteen. Again, which Stannis seems happy about



Stannis himself needs to introduction towards his military prowess, but suffice it to say, he’s the better commander between himself and Hosteen.

So at the end of the day

- Stannis as the much larger force
- The Manderlys are actually turncloaks
- Stannis seemingly is not at that big of a disadvantage facing cavalry due to the piling snow
- There is an unknown trap prepared to deal with the Freys and Ramsay
- Stannis is facing a lesser commander

Suffice it to say, I see Stannis crushing the battle of the crofter’s village. I mentioned theories like the Night Lamp one, which is a theory about what his trap is and how he’ll win, but realistically, I don’t even find them necessary. He’s got a much larger army, he could take on Hosteen head on and he’d still win through sheer numbers alone. We know he’s not planning on doing that, but regardless, practically all signs point to the fact that Stannis will win the battle of the crofter’s village.

Now it should be noted that Theon assumes that Ramsay will also be coming soon too, as he thinks he wants Theon and Arya back.


This is a possibility, but I’m not sure it’s a particularly likely one. Keep in mind, Roose sent out 1,700 men already between the Freys and Manderlys. From our calculations on what his strength was when he first came north, that’s somewhere between 1/3 to ¼ of his entire strength. I don’t find it particularly realistic that another army would be on its way to attack Stannis as well, considering how many troops have already been committed to that task. Theon says that Roose is unlikely to commit anything more than half his strength to attacking Stannis, and I’m inclined to agree



While Theon does think Roose might indeed send more troops, I find it unlikely as Stannis himself seemingly agrees with me as when he hears the news he specifically says it’s a mistake



It is indeed a mistake to send out that many troops when he holds Winterfell and can allow Stannis to simply starve to death outside. Remember, the Freys and Manderlys were specifically sent out because they were causing too much trouble inside. He sent them to attack Stannis as much as to cause damage to him as to mitigate damage within Winterfell. If he’s not facing a similar problem, though admittedly the loss of Arya could be seen as that, then Roose will not be committing more soldiers to attacking Stannis, and therefore I don’t believe Ramsay is coming.

But should Ramsay actually indeed be coming, well then he’s coming with a force between 1,300-2,050 according to Theon. Theon said that Roose wouldn’t risk more than half his army, which is somewhere between 3,000-3,750. He’s already loosed 1,700 men as we’ve discussed. Should Ramsay indeed be coming, then he’s only coming with a similar force to what Stannis has already faced. Even if you assume that Stannis loses half his men fighting the Freys he’ll still have more men than Ramsay, and he seems confident he’ll still have all the terrain advantages he’s preparing, and he’s still the better commander.

Stannis can still win even if Ramsay comes like Theon says he will. He might not be able to take Winterfell should be have to face two battles first, and that’s only assuming he suffers horrifying losses despite his seemingly confidence that that won’t happen, but he can indeed defeat both the Freys and Ramsay should it come to it.

Now while the next step is logically examining Stannis’ chances at actually taking Winterfell, a task we were specifically told he failed to do according to the Pink Letter, we need to first clear the air on something: Stannis is not dead like the Pink Letter claims. And there’s plenty of reasons as to why this is.

The Veracity of the Pink Letter

Your false king is dead, bastard. He and all his host were smashed in seven days of battle. I have his magic sword. Tell his red whore.

Now from the above, we know that a letter from “Ramsay” arrives to Jon Snow at the end of ADWD, claiming that Stannis was defeated battling for Winterfell. But like I said, there’s numerous reasons to believe this isn’t true.

First and foremost, GRRM makes an incredibly big deal out of the Bolton seal in ADWD, long before the pink letter ever arrives. It pops up in 3 different POVs, and one of them being Jon Snow’s own POV no less.







While the Theon example doesn’t go into the kind of detail that the Jon and Asha ones do, it should be noted that the Jon and Asha seals are word for word described the same: a button of hard pink wax. The seal on the pink letter however is the following:



This particular “Bolton” letter happens to not actually have that button of hard pink wax that GRRM had just established earlier in the novel is Ramsay’s seal. Nor is it tightly rolled like the other letters from Ramsay either. Safe to say, but GRRM wouldn’t just change such a thing after having previously given us the descriptions to know when something is off in the first place. That completely nullifies the whole point of having shown us Ramsay’s seal earlier in the novel.

And make no mistake, but GRRM definitely is trying to set up a switcheroo with the Bolton seal. Because let’s go back to those Jon and Asha examples, and more particularly these lines:





GRRM has both Asha and Jon make the simply fundamental mistake of assuming that it is the colour of the wax that identifies who sent the letter. Which is just plain wrong, it’s the impression IN the wax that identifies a letter is from Lord Such and Such. That’s what the seal does, it leaves an impression that only a single person should be capable of producing. Ramsay Bolton could use his seal on green, orange, black, white, whatever colour of wax he wanted, but his seal isn’t going to change. The seal will always identify that he sealed the letter, that’s the whole point of a seal. The colour of the wax means nothing. Yet both Jon and Asha make this mistake, and GRRM puts it right in the novels. It’s a primer to show that these two, and more so Jon, can’t actually identify a letter. Which realistically they probably shouldn’t be able to given that one is a woman and the other a bastard. Neither Balon nor Ned had any reason to have ever taught Asha or Jon the way to identify a letter properly given that it was never going to be in their future job descriptions. Robb should be able to recognize the difference between Lord Cerwyn and Lord Karstark’s seals, but why should Jon?

But regardless, GRRM sets up it that when Jon sees pink wax Jon’s thought process is pink wax = Boltons. And not that that seal = Boltons as it should be. Hence why Jon never notices that the seal isn’t actually the seal Ramsay had previously used.

Nor is it just the seal that changes from letter to letter. From Jon’s first letter we also get the following



So from there we can also see that Ramsay writes in huge, spiky letters, as well as that he (probably) writes his letters using blood for ink. Neither appear in the pink letter. Some might argue that Jon never notices a change in hand writing or ink so there isn’t one, and therefore Ramsay did indeed write the letter, but given that Jon also never noticed the change in seal, suffice it to say that I don’t agree with that argument. If he can miss one difference, why shouldn’t he miss the others?

The last major thing that needs to be discussed regarding the letter is the contents of it, of which many things are off. There are however only three things that I wish to discuss however which I believe prove that the letter isn’t accurate.

First and foremost, the letter claims that Stannis was defeated in seven days of battle. This sounds… fanciful to say the least. No battle anywhere else in the series ever lasts this long (note I’m arguing against battles and not sieges as that’s what the letter claimed was fought). This isn’t the real world, this is GRRM’s world where Robert Baratheon manages to win 3 battles in a single day. GRRM’s battles don’t take days, they take hours. A 7 day battle is simply unrealistic. Let alone a battle where the combatants would be fighting in the middle of a blizzard and cannot actually afford such a protracted battle among those elements as they'd have died of exposure. Or a battle where one combatant would be hurling themselves against a castle like Winterfell, presuming Stannis made it there. While this essay won’t be focusing on who might have wrote the letter if Ramsay did not, as the important thing for this essay is simply determining it need not be real and therefore Stannis can still be alive, this fanciful imagining of a king fighting his enemies in seven days of glorious battle seems exactly like the kind of thing Mance Rayder, a noted bard, would have written.

But regardless, I find the notion that Stannis fought for seven days before losing to be unrealistic. Remember, at best the two armies, had they met at full strength, would only have numbered somewhere around 14,000. This isn’t hundreds of thousands of men fighting. Seven days is unrealistic.

I know however that some people will be looking for more concrete examples of why the contents are inaccurate, and that brings us to point #2: the letter demands the Watch for fArya



Now the reason why we know that this proves that the letter is inaccurate is because well we know that Jon simply doesn’t have her. Yes, Jon did send Mance Rayder to free her and Mance was successful at getting her out of Winterfell. The problem is she ends up in Stannis’ camp. Stannis does send fArya northwards to the Wall, but here’s the catch: if Stannis lies 3 days from Winterfell, and Theon and fArya just arrived at the crofter’s village themselves, then they cannot be that far ahead of the Frey army that Theon knows Mors successfully trapped as they left Winterfell



The first of the coming men for Stannis should only be hours away, especially given how much time passes in Theon I (he notes various levels of snowfall, the Karstark army is subdued, etc.). Presuming a second army led by Ramsay is also coming as Theon predicts, they would only be days away as well at most as Stannis is only 3 days from Winterfell. If he’s just unleashed fArya, and within a few days after that at most he loses to Ramsay, either at the crofter’s village or at Winterfell, well there’s simply no way that fArya would ever be at the Wall anyways. Just like she isn’t.

It’s simply impossible that she wouldn’t still be travelling, and would be within days of Winterfell/the crofter’s village. Had Ramsay actually defeated Stannis and known that Stannis sent fArya to the Wall, then the Boltons should also know that they themselves have the much better chance of finding her than her being at the Wall as she literally could not have gotten anywhere close to the Wall in this weather, given that in normal weather it took Jon 18 days to get to the Wall from Winterfell in AGOT.

Simply put, the demand for fArya tells us that the letter isn’t accurate. If Stannis had just been defeated, then fArya is much closer to Winterfell then she is to the Watch. Hell, Ramsay would probably pass her by on his way to murder the Watch anyways.

Which also leads us to the next and final request that makes this letter inaccurate: the request for Theon



Now this definitely falls even more so into the problem that we just saw with fArya being at the Wall, aka that Theon couldn’t possibly have even travelled there, except even more so because Theon actually is with Stannis’ army. And he’s a prisoner who’s not going anywhere any time soon unless it’s for an execution. If Ramsay had defeated Stannis, well then he shouldn’t be looking for Theon as Theon is with the army that was just defeated. Had Stannis actually lost then there would be no need for Ramsay to be demanding that the Wall deliver him.

So based off the different seal, the lack of defineable identifiers of a letter actually written by Ramsay, and all the illogical pieces of information it contains, no the Pink letter is not real. And thus, if Stannis didn’t die, then he has some further importance.

But if this analysis of the pink letter didn’t convince you that Stannis isn’t dead, well luckily enough we still have visions that are evidence that he’s not dead either. First and foremost we have Melisandre’s vision that led her to believe Stannis was Azor Ahai in the first place.

The General of Man

"It is night in your Seven Kingdoms now," the red woman went on, "but soon the sun will rise again. The war continues, Davos Seaworth, and some will soon learn that even an ember in the ashes can still ignite a great blaze. The old maester looked at Stannis and saw only a man. You see a king. You are both wrong. He is the Lord's chosen, the warrior of fire. I have seen him leading the fight against the dark, I have seen it in the flames. The flames do not lie, else you would not be here. It is written in prophecy as well. When the red star bleeds and the darkness gathers, Azor Ahai shall be born again amidst smoke and salt to wake dragons out of stone. The bleeding star has come and gone, and Dragonstone is the place of smoke and salt. Stannis Baratheon is Azor Ahai reborn!" Her red eyes blazed like twin fires, and seemed to stare deep into his soul. "You do not believe me. You doubt the truth of R'hllor even now . . . yet have served him all the same, and will serve him again. I shall leave you here to think on all that I have told you. And because R'hllor is the source of all good, I shall leave the torch as well."

Melisandre saw a vision of Stannis leading the fight against the dark. This vision has not happened yet. Her visions are never wrong, simply her interpretations of them. Melisandre might believe that Stannis is Azor Ahai because of the vision she saw, but that won’t change where she saw Stannis.

Barring a retcon, which George shouldn’t be thinking about as he reminds us of this vision again in ADWD when Jon thinks Stannis is probably dead, Stannis cannot die until he’s yet fulfilled Melisandre’s vision of him leading the fight against the darkness. Stannis must still be the general of man one day that Melisandre saw him as.

Admittedly that’s not to say that he can’t lose at Winterfell and still fulfill the vision of fighting the darkness later on, but if he lives to fight till then, well then he obviously didn’t die as we are led to believe. And there’s another vision in this series that also suggests that Stannis didn’t fall at Winterfell: the vision of the blue eyed king Dany sees in the HOTU.

The Blue Eyed King

Then phantoms shivered through the murk, images in indigo. Viserys screamed as the molten gold ran down his cheeks and filled his mouth. A tall lord with copper skin and silver-gold hair stood beneath the banner of a fiery stallion, a burning city behind him. Rubies flew like drops of blood from the chest of a dying prince, and he sank to his knees in the water and with his last breath murmured a woman's name. . . . mother of dragons, daughter of death . . . Glowing like sunset, a red sword was raised in the hand of a blue-eyed king who cast no shadow. A cloth dragon swayed on poles amidst a cheering crowd. From a smoking tower, a great stone beast took wing, breathing shadow fire. . . . mother of dragons, slayer of lies . . . Her silver was trotting through the grass, to a darkling stream beneath a sea of stars. A corpse stood at the prow of a ship, eyes bright in his dead face, grey lips smiling sadly. A blue flower grew from a chink in a wall of ice, and filled the air with sweetness. . . . mother of dragons, bride of fire . . .

Now the reason why this particular vision is relevant to this discussion is precisely because of the set of visions it falls into: the slayer of lies visions.

In this series of visions Dany clearly sees Stannis Baratheon wielding Lightbringer. She then is also called the slayer of lies. As much as the Stannis fan in me cringes at literally any scenario where Stannis dies fighting Daenerys Targaryen, this vision implies a showdown between the two of them in Stannis is a lie and Dany is the slayer of lies. And well obviously Dany has still not yet reached Westoros by the end of ADWD, nor does she seem likely to reach Westoros, let alone northern Westoros, in the beginning of TWOW when Stannis will be fighting for Winterfell.

So if Dany and Stannis are fated to have a showdown in the future, then Stannis cannot die fighting to take Winterfell. He must indeed survive the coming fight. Again, while this doesn’t necessarily prove that he wins the battle, it does suggest he does not die. We’ll get to why he should win, but right now we’re just trying to prove he didn’t die as we were led to believe at first.

From the falsity of the Pink Letter, to the repeated visions of Stannis living on in the future, Stannis did not die at the end of ADWD. And thus the Battle for Winterfell is very much something that will likely happen. I say likely though because it’s not exactly a tropical vacation going on in Winterfell at that moment.

And therefore, it’s time to really examine what Stannis is facing in Winterfell.

Conditions in Winterfell

"Stannis?" laughed one of Roose Ryswell's riders. "Stannis is snowed to death by now. Else he's run back to the Wall with his tail froze between his legs."

"He could be camped five feet from our walls with a hundred thousand men," said an archer wearing Cerwyn colors. "We'd never see a one o' them through this storm."

The struggles Stannis is facing on his march are upfront and brutally honest. It’s snowing like crazy. Men are dying from exposure and starvation. They were delayed by weeks and months. The thing is, what many don’t seem to realize, is that these same conditions are occurring in Winterfell as well.



From the above we learn many harrowing things that do not at all depict great conditions within Winterfell

- It is snowing so hard and heavily that the drifts are climing the walls, collapsing tents, and guidance ropes had to be set up so that men don’t get lost simply crossing the yard
- The sentries are no longer even bothering to man their posts as they’re freezing and can’t see anything anyways
- Men are suffering from severe cases of frostbite

It is a frozen shithole in Winterfell. And the word frozen there is extremely important as we were told that Winterfell is a heated castle



Winterfell is NOT supposed to be cold. It was specifically designed to survive winter like no other castle in the Seven Kingdoms due to its hot springs and the pipes that rush through the walls, bringing hot water all throughout the castle. Yet this clearly isn’t happening.

The Boltons are freezing just like Stannis is. The thing is, they’re also starving just like Stannis is too.



We learn from Theon that due to Ramsay’s sacking of Winterfell that Winterfell itself has no storages, and that all the food they currently have came from Barrowton, White Harbor, and the Twins. This is not the Winterfell of norm, which has large grain storages and greenhouses to grow their own crops at any time. This is a Winterfell that is filled with only the food that could be carried by the 7,000ish men that Roose crammed into it. And as Theon notes, those men are hungry and would soon eat through their stores. Let’s take a look at one of the last meals Theon witnesses before he escapes Winterfell



Now while the lords and knights are eating ham, Theon notes that the regular men are eating old bread, but more importantly pease porridge. And this is an incredibly important detail because of something Bowen Marsh says while going over Castle Black’s own stores



Bowen Marsh details to Jon that Castle Black has enough food for 4 years, but that if he tries to feed the wildlings and Mole’s Town people that they’ll be down to turnips and pease porridge in less than a year. The clear indication from Bowen is that pease porridge is something that the Night’s Watch will be eating when they’re at the end of their stores. The men of Winterfell are currently being served what Bowen Marsh told us Castle Black wouldn’t be eating until they were nearing the end. Winterfell has ate through the food that was brought by the Freys, Dustins, and Manderlys. They’re starving just like Stannis is, exactly as Theon said they would.

So the Boltons and their allies are facing terrible conditions, and have begun to run out of food. They are not in a good position either. The thing is though, is that Roose founded his alliance on questionable grounds to begin with. Let’s take a look at those allies he has one more time:



Roose himself admits that his “allies” would like nothing better than to see him dead. And he’s not wrong. We know that some Cerwyns and Tallharts are also in Stannis’ army. We know that Wyman has agreed to support Stannis too. And as to Whoresbane, keep in mind that as has already been previously covered, Whoresbane brought only the old men with him. There is a certain practice among the northerners where the old men go out “hunting” in winter, looking for a chance to die rather than stay at home being a burden on their family. We’ve already seen some of Stannis’ own men express this philosophy, that they’re there to taste Bolton blood one last time before they die. I find it extremely likely that Whoresbane and his men are on similar missions, simply though that they’re already inside Winterfell. That’s speculation of course, but still the pattern is there and Roose himself admits it: his allies are not to be trusted. Not even the best of them like the Ryswells or Dustins



Both the Ryswells and Dustins are quick to point out that they too lost men at the Red Wedding, and love the Freys no more than any of the other openly hostile northern houses do. It’s how Lady Dustin says it however that’s interesting. She specifically says “The north remembers”. That’s the exact phrase that Wyman used when he too agreed to plot against the Freys and Boltons. And no, it is not exactly a common phrase. Robb is the first character to use it in ASOS when he describes how Harrion won’t forget that Robb killed Rickard. It then next appears in Wyman’s speech. Then Lady Dustin uses it. Then Theon uses it to describe to Stannis that none of the northerners have forgiven any of what’s happened to them from the Boltons. It’s used 4 times all series and it does not appear in TWOIAF or any other text. It’s a newly developed phrase.

And while Robb seems to have originated it, I’d like to focus on Theon’s use of the phrase. Theon only learned the phrase from Lady Dustin. The question then becomes, did Lady Dustin learn it from Wyman? Because right before Dustin says it herself and the Ryswells are quick to dispel any notion that Manderlys were involved in the killings, despite them being the overwhelmingly obvious candidates (even if they didn’t actually do them). Why should Dustins or Ryswells care if the Manderlys are blamed for the murders? Manderly barely brought any forces anyways, he’s contributing almost nothing to their cause besides eating all the food. Or Barbrey knows that Manderly actually has all those secret forces that we discussed earlier and knows that he’s a force to be reckoned with. I find the notion that the Dustins/Ryswells are working with Manderly, or at least not hostile towards him, to be quite compelling.

However I admit that went on a longer tangent than was initially intended. The point is still clear: Roose’s allies are not willing allies. They hold no love for House Bolton. But the real important part, that’s truly important in testing their loyalties, is whether they’re willing to face Stannis Baratheon for him. And the answer is that they quite fear Stannis



Just the very thought of Stannis having arrived at Winterfell caused all motion to cease. The very idea that Stannis had come to battle them caused a disturbance. Exactly what do you imagine will happen when Stannis actually does appear before Winterfell, having defeated not only the ironborn, not only the Freys, but also potentially Ramsay too? Why would any of Roose’s uncertain allies want to fight Stannis? It would be like if the god of death had suddenly appeared.

And the beautiful part is that if Stannis does all that, and he’ll at minimum have had to beat the ironborn (which he’s already done) and the Freys (which he’s facing at the crofter’s village), then he’s already done more for the north than the Boltons have. And he’ll have crushed both of them. He’ll look like a god send for anybody looking for revenge, and an unstoppable force for anybody looking to oppose him. No matter what he’s arriving at Winterfell with a ridiculous acumen if he defeats the Freys, let alone Ramsay too.

But the most ironic part is something we had covered long ago. Presuming Ramsay actually does come out like Theon believes, and presuming Stannis defeats both the Freys and Ramsay, he’ll quite possible will have suffered many losses before he actually reaches Winterfell… and nobody will know.



We know that Stannis doesn’t have anywhere near 100,000 men, but as the above quote proves, so long as the weather remains shit, the people inside Winterfell won’t actually be able to have any idea how large Stannis’ force actually is when he arrives at Winterfell. All they’ll hear are the drums and the horns, and the idea that they’re facing a man who’s withstood against the Reach, defeated the Targaryens, defeated the ironborn multiple times, defeated the wildlings, defeated the Freys, and defeated Ramsay Bolton. It is indeed an extremely large possibility that there simply will never be a Battle for Winterfell because the men inside will simply surrender. Northerners flocked to Stannis when he won at Deepwood Motte, why should it be any different if he also defeats the Freys and part of the Boltons, both who have committed way more crimes than the ironborn, who actually treated their captives quite well?

It’s subtle, but when you truly examine what’s happening, Roose Bolton is NOT in a position of power against Stannis. Literally his only true advantage is the strength of his walls. Other than that, he’s in the same position as Stannis, if not worse. His men are freezing like Stannis’. His men are starving like Stannis’. His allies hate him. He’s quite likely going to be facing Stannis after Stannis has just secured major victories, and last time that happened men flocked to him. Roose Bolton blundered by coming to Winterfell, and it's time to examine that battle.

The Fall of Winterfell

Stannis bristled at that. "I defeated your uncle Victarion and his Iron Fleet off Fair Isle, the first time your father crowned himself. I held Storm's End against the power of the Reach for a year, and took Dragonstone from the Targaryens. I smashed Mance Rayder at the Wall, though he had twenty times my numbers. Tell me, turncloak, what battles has the Bastard of Bolton ever won that I should fear him?"

Stannis’ military record speaks for itself. He’s withstood sieges, won battles at both sea and land, and against terrible odds. We need to definitely consider that this is not some regular general we’re talking about, but one of the best alive. And as I hope I’ve proved, he’s not really facing bad odds. The fact is,

- He’s not outnumbered
- He’s not out provisioned
- He’s not facing a better commander

All in all, good factors for Stannis. Bolton’s only true advantage is his walls as I stated previously. The thing is, that’s not a particularly great advantage. In fact, I don’t see them being a hindrance. In any normal situation they might’ve been a massive problem for a besieging army, but by the grace of R’hllor there is one good thing about Stannis waging his war during winter: all that goddamn snow.



From Theon we learn that the snow banks outside Winterfell have crawled up to over half the height of the wall. And that was before Theon escaped, and we’ve had at minimum 6 days more of snowfall since (3 days for Theon to reach Stannis, 3 days for Stannis to reach Winterfell). In any normal situation Stannis would have been faced with a nigh unbreacheable 80 foot wall. He’s now however faced with a what, a 30 foot wall (accounting for several more feet of snow)? The strength of Winterfell’s walls is not what they once were… especially not considering who Stannis has in his army: northerners and ironborn.



Let’s take a moment to remember that Theon was able to take Winterfell by simply climbing those 80 foot walls with nothing more than grappling hooks and rope. Now yes, that is indeed largely due to the fact that Rodrik had taken most of the garrison away so Winterfell was left empty of most of its defenders and there were openings along the walls that wouldn’t normally be there. But the plan is there, and it’s even more easily achieved precisely because of those snow drifts, the weather in general, and Stannis’ northerners.

Let’s take a look at Stannis’ northerners, and how they deal with snow.



The northerners have snow shoes. That snow drift is prime territory for them, even if it isn’t completely packed. They can walk on it. And let’s keep in mind, but these are MOUNTAIN clansmen. That 40-50 snowdrift is nothing to them, this is what they’ve done all their lives living in the mountains they call their home. A very large portion of Stannis’ men can get right to the significantly reduced walls with no trouble whatsoever. And I sincerely mean that. We need to go back to a prior quote from this essay but it’s definitely worth repeating



Bolton’s sentries cannot see anything from their posts. If Stannis never announces his arrival at Winterfell with drums and horns the way Mors did, the Boltons will literally never even know he’s there. He can send his mountain clansmen and ironborn right up and over the walls of Winterfell and they’ll never know he’s there until it’s too late. And I’m not exaggerating that, because Bolton’s sentries not only can’t see anything, but they’re not even watching anyways.



Bolton’s guards are holing themselves up in their guard turrets, leaving the wallwalks completely defenceless.

Therefore I propose that Stannis will march to Winterfell, and upon seeing the snowdrifts, he will task his mountain clansmen and ironborn to climb the drifts, throw grappling hooks over the unguarded sections of the walls, and seize the walls. Assuming he successfully seizes the walls, well then Winterfell is practically done. If Stannis is as successful as he believes he will be at the crofter’s village, then his army should suffer minimal losses. Which means that he will have some 2,000-3,000 mountain clansmen who can make it over those walls. He won’t send that many, but theoretically he could force climbs on every wall and seize them one by one, he simply has the men capable of that.

Regardless, from there he has men inside the castle who will begin to attempt to seize a gate as Stannis must get his whole army inside, not simply his mountain clansmen. If the defenders ever realize what’s happening it will be too late as Roose himself, if he sends out both the Freys and Ramsay to deal with Stannis, will have already expended half of his force. Remember, he’s trusting his walls to save him, but they will be his downfall. He’s not prepared for hundreds of men breaching his walls. When the defenders realize Stannis is here and has gained his way inside the castle many will reveal their true colours and turn on the Boltons. We know at minimum that Lord Locke and the Locke men are turncloaks as Manderly promised their allegiance alongside his own. They are the most obvious men who will turn, but as proposed earlier I find it highly unlikely Whoresbane doesn’t as well. From there the point is moot.

Stannis will gain the walls through the snowdrifts, open a gate, and march his army right into Winterfell. As Theon did before him, Stannis will take the walls before anybody can even realize it’s happening. Winterfell won’t fall with a bang, but rather a whimper. The one good thing this snow ever did is that it ensured that Stannis can take Winterfell. Winter will cause the fall of Winterfell.

Now while I admit some might have trouble envisioning this type of scenario, there’s also a very logical reason why Stannis will take Winterfell from the Boltons, even if the specifics of the plan I outlined above isn’t exactly what happens: he’s the only one capable of it.

Why it must be Stannis if the Boltons are to be defeated

No burnings today, and none tomorrow … but if the snows continue, how long before the king's resolve begins to weaken? Asha had never shared her uncle Aeron's faith in the Drowned God, but that night she prayed as fervently to He Who Dwells Beneath the Waves as ever the Damphair had. The storm did not abate. The march continued, slowing to a stagger, then a crawl. Five miles was a good day. Then three. Then two.

By the ninth day of the storm, every camp saw the captains and commanders entering the king's tent wet and weary, to sink to one knee and report their losses for the day.

While we’ve covered why Stannis is actually in a fairly good position and should win both the Battle of Ice and Battle of Winterfell, simply put fundamentally speaking, Stannis HAS to win if the Boltons are to be defeated, at least any time soon. Mainly because he’s the only one actually capable of doing so. Let’s take a look at some of the other remaining candidates before explaining why they won’t work.

- Arya
- Bran
- Rickon
- Jon
- Sansa
- The crannogmen
- The Skagosi

Arya and Bran can simply put be promptly eliminated. They have no forces of their own, they cannot take Winterfell.

Rickon can also be eliminated, not only because he’s only 5 years old, but also because his own forces, House Glover and House Manderly, are already fighting for Stannis. A Rickon victory is a Stannis victory, that was the deal Davos agreed to.

Jon is at the Wall and has a force of anywhere between 800-1,400 wildlings. We know this number as Lord Fell counted 300 warriors among the captives Stannis took, Jon corrects him and says there’s probably another 50-100 spearwives in that group, and then Tormund arrives with 500 warriors, but Jon thinks it can be as many as 1,000. So Jon has 800-1,400 wildlings. An okay number, but not nearly enough to actually fight the Boltons. There is a larger reason why he can’t, but that needs to be discussed later.

Sansa is in the Vale, and has a force of around 18,000 given that GRRM has said in SSMs (link) that the Vale, Riverlands, and North all field roughly the same number of men for their armies and that’s what Robb had. Plenty more than enough men, but again, we must wait for why they won't.

The Skagosi and crannogmen might seem like an odd inclusion to some, but I included them as if you didn’t notice when I detailed who was fighting for who earlier in this essay, they are the two people who declared for neither Stannis nor Roose. They are the neutral parties in all of this, thus there is the possibility that they could show up at some moment. And they are also the perfect segueway into explaining exactly why neither they, Bran, Arya, Rickon, Jon, Sansa, or anybody else will be taking Winterfell other than Stannis: distance.

Go back to that quote that opened up this section of the essay. The weather ensured that Stannis’ army was barely moving at all, and eventually his army got snowed in at the crofter’s village for weeks, incapable of moving. His entire journey was only supposed to take a few weeks and instead it’s taken months and months… and he’s still not there. If anybody other than Stannis is going to be taking Winterfell from the Boltons then I hope they started marching months ago. And if not, well as we covered, the Boltons are already starving. Whoever else would arrive long after not only Stannis’ battle, but after the Boltons starved to death.

Stannis is the only person in any actual position to take Winterfell. If Winterfell will fall, then it must logically fall to Stannis as no other person is in any position to do so like he is. I enjoy my plan of using the snowdrifts to take the castle, but ultimately it’s the plot that will cause Stannis to win. That same snow that can grant Stannis his own victory will ensure that nobody else can get to Winterfell to steal it from him.

So Stannis takes Winterfell. What happens next? Or rather what happens if Stannis chooses not even to attack Winterfell? Well both questions lead to the same road in my opinion: the Dreadfort.

The Fall of the Boltons

"I know all about your vows. Spare me your rectitude, Lord Snow, I have strength enough without you. I have a mind to march against the Dreadfort." When he saw the shock on Jon's face, he smiled. "Does that surprise you? Good. What surprises one Snow may yet surprise another. The Bastard of Bolton has gone south, taking Hother Umber with him. On that Mors Umber and Arnolf Karstark are agreed. That can only mean a strike at Moat Cailin, to open the way for his lord father to return to the north. The bastard must think I am too busy with the wildlings to trouble him. Well and good. The boy has shown me his throat. I mean to rip it out. Roose Bolton may regain the north, but when he does he will find that his castle, herds, and harvest all belong to me.

From the very beginning Stannis told us that he wanted to move against the Dreadfort. That was his original plan. You’ll recall however that Jon Snow cautioned against that plan for these reasons



Now I’m not the military genius that Stannis is, but it seems to me that these obstacles have all been defeated. Mors Umber swore fealty to Stannis so he won’t be cutting Stannis’ army to pieces, nor is he even capable of such a thing given that Stannis isn’t where Jon thought he would be as Jon detailed his objections specifically based off the fact that Stannis was at the Wall and would cross Umber lands. Which is the most important thing of all: Stannis isn’t there. Stannis is at the crofter’s village/Winterfell, depending on when he moves on the Dreadfort.

See, the thing is is that attacking Deepwood Motte was a great move for all the reasons Jon told him he should do it instead of attacking the Dreadfort, but it was also a great move as it made Stannis travel south along the WEST coast, and not the EAST coast as Jon warned him against. Every objection Jon leveled at Stannis was precisely based on the fact that Stannis could not travel SOUTH towards the Dreadfort. Stannis is now WEST of the Dreadfort. There is no host that will bleed him to pieces, especially not if he’s taking Winterfell first, and there’s no signal line that can warn the Dreadfort. Or rather if there is, well it’s completely irrelevant in this weather as the fires would be unnoticeable.

The fact of the matter is is that the Dreadfort is prime for the taking. It’s as undefended as ever, there’s no host to stop him or cut him off, there’s no signal fires to warn anybody of his approach, and most importantly of all, the Dreadfort is still as well provisioned as ever. Which is exactly what Stannis needs.



Inside that castle is 2 years worth of food that Stannis can plunder. Now if I can figure out that the risks aren’t what they once were, as well as that that castle still has all the food it did when Jon first mentioned it, well then I’m next to positive that someone like Stannis should also notice this very thing. And if he’s already won at Winterfell, well then finishing off the Boltons by taking their castle too is simply logical.

The Dreadfort is Stannis’ next move. And unlike why no one else can take Winterfell other than Stannis because of distance and the snow, the trip to the Dreadfort is actually a relatively easy one for Stannis. You see, there’s something I like to call Checkov’s river and Checkov’s boat. Those being the White Knife and Wyman Manderly’s navy that he’s been building since ACOK. As Wyman details to Davos,



He has plenty of ships, and they’re mostly hidden along the White Knife. Which rather coincidentally has never frozen all series, has been used for rapid travel all series, and just so happens to branch off near BOTH the crofter’s village and Winterfell.



The White Knife is the key to everything. It’s literally right by both of the locations Stannis is either at or will be at, and Wyman has some ships he’d like to sell Stannis. With Wyman on his side, either before or after Winterfell as no matter what he’s revealing his allegiance at one of those points, Wyman can reveal his ships to Stannis and Stannis can sail along the White Knife to White Harbor. He can restock there, gather Wyman’s other men, then just as easily sail along the coasts, stop at Widow’s Watch where Wyman promised Lady Flint would follow his lead, get more men, then continue on till he reaches the Weeping River, which goes directly to the Dreadfort.



The steps are all there, the moves are all there. Stannis will not take months to reach the Dreadfort, he will get there in weeks. And they’ll never know. That's what Wyman's boats are for. To get Stannis out of the shithole that is Winterfell, and to allow him to crush the Boltons once and for all by taking their castle.

Now Stannis says that Arnolf informed him that the Dreadfort only has a garrison of 50 men of which half are just servants and not actually fighters, and while Arnolf is a traitor, he can’t realistically be lying about this. Roose took most of the Dreadfort men south, then returned north and went to Winterfell. Those men are not at the Dreadfort, they’re at Winterfell. We know Ramsay had 600 Dreadfort men and that that was the true size of the garrison Roose left in the north, but we also know that Ramsay marched them to Moat Cailin, then went to Winterfell. So his 600 men aren’t at the Dreadfort either, they're at Winterfell. Basically, even if Arnolf is lying about the exact number of men still at the Dreadfort, they’re simply can’t actually be that many. They’re all at Winterfell because that’s where both Ramsay and Roose brought their armies. If the Dreadfort is barely garrisoned, well then that’s just basically a no brainer then that it will fall. Stannis can lose thousands in his next coming battles, but he’d still have more than enough men to take the Dreadfort as he’d have already dealt with 99% of the Dreadfort soldiers at the crofter’s village and Winterfell.

The Dreadfort will fall, and it will especially fall because Stannis has Theon and Tybald. Who both who know the layout of the Dreadfort. He has the numbers, the means to assault it, men who can properly advise him on its strengths, and hell, that garrison has no reason to fight anyways if Roose and Ramsay are dead as that means House Bolton is extinguished.

Conclusion

And there you have it. Instead of being an incredibly bleak situation for Stannis, Stannis is actually in a good spot, much more so than the books initially would have you believe. That’s not to say that he’s not still freezing and starving, but I’d be shocked if he doesn’t convincingly win the Battle of Ice, Battle of Winterfell, and Battle for the Dreadfort that I theorize will occur. Stannis will win his war because he has the men and allies to do so, and the Boltons have blundered and grown lax. And just plain because logic details he’s the only one in any position to do so, as well as the fact that he has prophecy on his side saying that he’ll survive all of this because he has other tasks that he still needs to do.

Stannis will indeed win the north.