The Watchers on the Walls .Part III The means of making Fire

Watchers on the Walls a Theory about Jon Snow



Part III. The means of making fire

Hi everyone! this is the third part of a very long theory that has 6 parts, the purpose is to prove Jon Snow’s identity, and why it matters.



Part I: Jon’s identity
Part II: Ned’s fever dream
Part III: Harrenhal

Part IV: Dragons and magic (this part)

Part V: Jon and wolves

Part VI: Jon’s death

In this part I’m going to talk about Lyanna, Robert and Harrenhal, to dismiss her as a suspect, so we can finally talk about Jon and his identity “issues”.



A) – The maiden and the Sword


Let’s start with the consequences of Harrenhal.



Due to what happens in Harrenhal, the Starks lose 3 very important things that are represented in the prologue by the three rangers:



Lyanna, who is apparently oblivious to everything that happens, just as Will

Brandon, the Starks “sword”, represented by Waymar, presumed dead in Brandon’s case, not exactly dead in Royce’s case.

Gared, the old ranger who stays with the horses, and to whom Royce gives the order “no fire”, represents Rickard who is burned to death.

In turn, the 3 Starks symbolize the 3 KG in Ned’s dream:



• Lyanna, represents Arthur, “the sword of the morning” that is, what awakens Ned. Will comes down from the tree thinking that Waymar’s sword was the proof he needed to take to Gared or Mormont, because they would understand the meaning of the broken sword. The Dayne’s sword is white, Lyanna demands a promise from Ned, something that costs him much, like “gold”. We have white and gold. White Sword and gold.



• Brandon the Starks “sword” the heir, in Ned’s dream, Oswell is on his knees sharpening it, caring for it. About Waymar, Mormont says that he was a “green boy“, the sword and armor of the “Other” that confront Waymar are “magical”. The Royce’s armor is made of bronze and his words are “We Remember”. We have green and bronze. Remember



• Rickard, Gerold and Gared are old, the “old blood”. Gared dresses in black, Rickard in gray, the Stark colors, and Gerold in white like befitted to a KG. We have “old blood” and black, gray and white. The wolves that appear in Winterfell when Ned returns from beheading Gared are those colors. Black, gray and white is the armor of the “Other” who fight with Waymar, like the Winterfell wolves.



White sword, we remember, wolves. Meaning, “The North Remembers”.



In time, these 3 things can be linked to the 3 clues that I mentioned in part I about Jon, the eyes (that whatch and remember), the hand (the sword) and the horn (the wolf).



The colors mentioned for the 3 Starks are the same as Danny’s eggs, and it is no coincidence. Jon can’t be understood without Dany as we’ll see in the next part.



Let’s go back to the 3 Starks, the 3 Rangers and the 3 KGs because we will see that, if we think about them in relation to Jon, it gets very interesting.



Lyanna, Arthur and Will are the “watchers” represented by the splendid sword that’s never wielded, which is the “proof” and what awakens Ned. Ghost is Jon’s eyes in the dark, what awakens his “warg” power, while Jon is with Qhorin, one of the NW greatest swords. Ghost proves that Jon is “the” Stark, the heir. Lyanna would have carried a sword if her father would allow it, Arthur never wields his sword in Ned’s dream, and Will is murdered when he tries to leave with Royce’s sword.

Brandon is buried sword in hand as all Starks Lords and Kings are, even when he never was a Lord or King. Waymar the green boy’s sword had 3 sapphires, sapphires are blue, like the eye of the “ice dragon” that signal the way to the north. When Jon goes beyond the wall, he has a great sword, but not exactly the one he wants, he wants “ICE” the Starks sword. The blue of the ice dragon’s eye, refers to the “maid” of Bael’s song, the bard changes the blue flower for the maiden.

Rickard, the oldest Stark. The “old blood” in the north are the wildlings, (winter) which is where Jon begins his journey to find his roots, both his Stark side and his “dornish” side, the wildlings are the closest thing to a “dornish” you may find north. The black represents The Night’s Watch, where he is sent to die, although metaphorically, Jon is already dead given his statue in the crypt. The “old blood” is represented by Gared (the black brother) and Ser Gerold, the “white bull”.

In Jon as I said in Part I, the clues were always the eyes (that look), the “sword”, which is not an actual steel sword, and the “horn” meaning the wolf.



First, let’s talk about Lyanna, to discard her as his mother once and for all.



Let’s start with the crowns



1) A crown as blue as frost


“I sent Benjen Stark to search after Yohn Royce’s son, lost on his first ranging. The Royce boy was green as summer grass, yet he insisted on the honor of his own command, saying it was his due as a knight. I did not wish to offend his lord father, so I yielded.” Tyrion III – AGoT



Waymar was given the honor of leading his first mission, he was “crowned”. His disappearance however, has no consequence until Ned sends Gared’s head to the NW. When Mormont get’s the head he thinks that something must have happened to Waymar and sends Benjen lo look for him because he was a Royce, otherwise nobody would have gone looking for him, they would have just assumed that he deserted.



“They had taken his hand, they had taken his sword hand, and without it he was nothing. The other was no good to him.” Jaime



Interestingly, the only person that the NW interrogates about Benjen’s and Waymar’s disappearance is Craster, the closest thing to a “Mad Targaryen” that can be found north of the neck. Jon, who had his sword hand “removed” because he burned it, has the opportunity to find his “true” sword north of the Wall, and is not Ghost as it seems, the wolf is part of it, but only a part of it. Jon’s true sword is seeing and learning.



Brandon Stark’s arrest is what gets Rickard out of Winterfell, not Lyanna. No one went looking for Lyanna.



It is precisely for this reason that Robert goes to Winterfell to “visit” Ned.



Not to offer to be his “Hand”, but to “crown” Sansa and see Jon. To see the “prize” that Ned brought from the war. To find out if that prize was Lyanna’s and if Ned had lied.



Ned’s worst problem is that, in addition, in his own home, there is someone who also suspects about the prize he brought from the war.



Cat, like everyone, noticed that Jon is older than Robb. Unless Ned is a magician, it can’t be explained how he brought a baby from the south when at the time of that baby’s conception, Ned was coming from the North.



Worse, Jon is smarter than her son Robb, looks like a Stark unlike Cat’s children, and I think that as he grows up, not only looks more like a Stark, but he looks more like Brandon, and that is what really scares Cat, the possibility that Jon might be Brandon’s, not Ned’s bastard. Because being Ned’s bastard is infinitely less dangerous for her and her children than being Brandon’s son.



Along with Robert, a message arrives at Winterfell, hidden in a very cunning way, meant to be seen only by Cat’s eyes and written in a “secret language”. Despite the secret language, Cat, naked, reads it and runs to burn it:



“Maester Luwin has delivered all my children,” Catelyn said. “This is no time for false modesty.” She slid the paper in among the kindling and placed the heavier logs on top of it.”



The message was a warning to Cat sent by her sister to let her know that the Lannisters where behind Jon Arryn’s death (which of course was a lie), but the important thing is that the message helped Cat to convince Ned that he had to go to KL to reassure Robert, and more important to Cat, that Jon had to leave Winterfell.



Cat gets Maester Luwin’s support, who has just seen her boobs, creator of the phrase “bastards grow up faster”.



“Never believe anything you hear at a woman’s tit. “ Prologue – AGoT



This scene from Cat and Ned is also very similar to others that we saw related to Jon, the arrival of Alys Karstark to the Wall, tit included, and the arrival of the “bastard letter” which is clearly written “only for the bastard’s eyes”, and whose content, as we will see later, is written in a “secret language ”. The bastard’s path out of Winterfell begins and ends with a secret message.



Robert does indeed take “his Hand”, and since they leave Winterfell and until the moment of Ned’s death, everything that happens to him seems like a version of purgatory, in which he is faced again and again with the consequences of the worst two lies he told in his life and that he cannot confess. One was said to protect Robert, and the other to protect Cat. Ironically, those two people are the ones who lead him to his demise.



“The tourney Lord Whent staged at Harrenhal beside the Gods Eye, in the year of the false spring. A notable event. Besides the jousting, there was a mêlée in the old style fought between seven teams of knights, as well as archery and axe-throwing, a horse race, a tournament of singers, a mummer show, and many feasts and frolics. Lord Whent was as open handed as he was rich. The lavish purses he proclaimed drew hundreds of challengers. Even your royal father came to Harrenhal, when he had not left the Red Keep for long years.”



Harrenhal’s tourney was a “mummer show”. Ned’s appointment too. What Robert wanted was Sansa, to make sure that Ned wasn’t a traitor. Robert takes Ned out of his element, to try to make him confess the truth. The only one who believes that someone bought his story of the kidnapped and dead sister for no apparent logical reason, and the war-born bastard is Ned.



The “disappearance” freed Lyanna from Robert, but does not imply that Lyanna is dead. Ned “had to kill her” because of Robert’s obsession, and because Robert is King.



Rhaegar was obsessed yes, but his obsession was about dragons, not wolves. Regarding the Kings guard’s behavior in Ned’s dream, it doesn’t fit at all with what Jaime, who knew them, or Selmy who knew them better, thinks of them.



Robert had plenty of time to think, Jon Arryn ruled instead of him. The king was suspicious of Ned precisely because of Ned’s behavior, that after the war went to Winterfell and almost never left, but he was also afraid because his own “invincible” warrior nature made him fear this potential traitor who had supposedly, accompanied by 6 very mediocre companions, defeated the best swords in his kingdom, while Robert had won the crown by killing the mediocre Rhaegar in two shots.



The problem is that EVERYONE was in Harrenhal, and it is clear that Lyanna’s disappearance has to do with Harrenhal and her crowning.



“Unless you take me back to Harrenhal, the song I sing my father may not be one the Lord of the Dreadfort would wish to hear.” Jaime



The song that people sings about Rahegar and Lyanna is a lie. It’s the song that Ned thinks Robert wants to hear, because it is gentler than the truth.



Jon Snow on the other hand, is a real problem for Ned, it is the greatest danger he faced in his life, although he doesn’t notice it. Aerys underestimated his fall until it was knocking at his doors, Ned didn’t even see it coming.



From Cat’s perspective, Jon is a danger for her and her own ambitions.



“Just don’t try and bring down a ‘cat,” he muttered. Even for a direwolf, that would be dangerous.” Jon VII – AcoK



Cat’s decisions, the things she does from the moment she leaves Winterfell and until Ned’s death are inexplicable if she wasn’t looking for her husband to die. Cat is one of the most ambitious characters in this series, and that ambition made her “eat” all her children like the legendary “rat cook”.



If Jon is Rhaegar’s son as Robert suspects, then Ned is a potential traitor. I believe that Donal Noye was in the Wall precisely for that reason. It’s never explained why the smith joined the NW, furthermore, he was still capable of doing his job, so there’s no logical reason for him being there. But, considering that Benjen was at The Wall and that he surely knew who Jon truly was, then Donal’s presence there is far more interesting. I believe that Robert sent Noye to the NW to try to find out who was truly Jon’s father.



But, I think, what Robert really wants to know is what happened to Lyanna, who “stole her” from him.



Because Robert never stopped looking for her. Robert is the Night’s Watch in the story of Bael who goes in search of the maiden. The legendary “Last Hero” of the long night’s story, who continues searching for “the magic”, in his case love, even when his sword freezes. Possibly that love will not last more than a single night, but it is that night that Robert desperately wants, that long night with Lyanna Stark.



If Lyanna was in fact “stolen”, it could have been anyone in Harrenhal except:



Jaime Lannister, who was not there, and never left KL again during the entire war.

Robert himself

Robert believes that Ned has the answer he is looking for and until he dies, he tries to get it.



“Good,” he said, smiling. “I will give Lyanna your love, Ned. Take care of my children for me.” The words twisted in Ned’s belly like a knife. For a moment he was at a loss.”



The answer to Lyanna’s mystery is not Jon Snow of course, but Harrenhal.




2) The Winter Rose



In addition to the physical resemblance to the Starks, Waymar Royce shares something else with them, specifically with Lyanna.



a) “She was more beautiful than that,” the king said after a silence. His eyes lingered on Lyanna’s face, as if he could will her back to life. (…)”She deserved more than darkness …”



Waymar surely deserved better than the “darkness” in which he dies. But the point here is “will” her:



b) The king touched her cheek, his fingers brushing across the rough stone as gently as if it were living flesh. “I vowed to kill Rhaegar for what he did to her.”



The way Robert touches “Lyanna’s statue” is the same as this:



“Will closed his eyes to pray. Long, elegant hands brushed his cheek, then tightened around his throat. They were gloved in the finest moleskin and sticky with blood, yet the touch was icy cold.”



The only suspect in Lyanna’s mystery is Rhaegar, the true “perpetrator“, is hidden, but in front of our eyes.



Furthermore, there are only 6 possible suspects in Lyanna’s mystery and they were all present in Harrenhal. 6 are the “Others” that attack Waymar, 1 accompanied by 5 “watchers” all faceless, silent, “all but invisible”. The 6 suspects are the White Swords of the KG, the Lord Commander and the other 5, the “watchers” present in Harrenhal.



“The night of our wedding feast, the first time we shared a bed, he called me by your sister’s name. He was on top of me, in me, stinking of wine, and he whispered Lyanna.”



Ned Stark thought of pale blue roses, and for a moment he wanted to weep.”



The answer is clearly Harrenhal’s “pale blue roses”.



This is what Jaime remembers of his investiture during the Tournament:



“He said his vows before the king’s pavilion, kneeling on the green grass in white armor while half the realm looked on. When Ser Gerold Hightower raised him up and put the white cloak about his shoulders, a roar went up that Jaime still remembered, all these years later.”



As in Rickard’s death, Jaime’s and Ned’s memories are slightly different.



“He remembered Jaime Lannister, a golden youth in scaled white armor, kneeling on the grass in front of the king’s pavilion and making his vows to protect and defend King Aerys. Afterward, Ser Oswell Whent helped Jaime to his feet, and the White Bull himself, Lord Commander Ser Gerold Hightower, fastened the snowy cloak of the Kingsguard about his shoulders. All six White Swords were there to welcome their newest brother.”



In Jaime’s memory, the one saying the vows and therefore, the one who should remember exactly what happened, Gerold Hightower is the one who helps him to his feet and puts the white cloak about his shoulders.



In Ned’s memory, is Oswell Whent instead.



If we consider Oswell as a suspect in Lyanna’s disappearance, we will see that things get very interesting.



“Ned Stark reached out his hand to grasp the flowery crown, but beneath the pale blue petals the thorns lay hidden. He felt them clawing at his skin, sharp and cruel, saw the slow trickle of blood run down his fingers, and woke, trembling, in the dark,” Eddard XV AGoT



a) Our knees do not bend easily


In Ned’s dream, Oswell is on one knee:



“Ser Oswell Whent was on one knee, sharpening his blade with a whetstone. Across his white-enameled helm, the black bat of his House spread its wings.”



Oswell is “sharpening his blade” while his black bat spread its wings, meaning, he is leaving.



Lyanna supposedly has a statue in the crypt, to access the crypt you have to go through the First Keep.



“That brought you up to the blind side of the First Keep, the oldest part of the castle, a squat round fortress that was taller than it looked. Only rats and spiders lived there now but the old stones still made for good climbing”



“Blind” are the bats, Harrenhal is “taller than it looks”, in that Castle “only rats and spiders” live now. Harrenhal as a structure is worth little, but it is “good climbing“, it is a great strategic position, but it is also a great seat of power and wealth, much more than Storm’s End, at least seeing it from the North, from the Starks perspective.



b) The dragon’s honor


“Whent’s great tourney. He wanted to show us all his big castle and his fine sons. I wanted to show them too. I was only fifteen, but no one could have beaten me that day.” Jaime



Among all the talking about Harrenhal, and what each character remembers of the tourney, we lose sight of the most important point, which is the purpose of the tourney.



The crown of blue roses symbolized Harrenhal’s maiden.



“The daughter of the great castle reigned as queen of love and beauty when the tourney opened. Five champions had sworn to defend her crown; her four brothers of Harrenhal, and her famous uncle, a white knight of the Kingsguard.”



Blue roses grow “artificially” in Winterfell, they are only there because the castle has a greenhouse. In Harrenhal, where the climate is temperate, they surely grow naturally.



“What did any Targaryen ever know of honor? Go down into your crypt and ask Lyanna about the dragon’s honor! Eddard II – AGoT



Lyanna’s crowning has nothing to do with Rhaegar, but Harrenhal, or rather the Whents. What the dragons were probably honorable about was letting Whent leave the KG.



For Rickard to give up the offer he had – that is, Robert as husband for Lyanna – he needed a better offer, and that’s what Harrenhal was all about, for Lyanna to choose any of the Whents as her husband.



In his duel with the “Other” Waymar shouts “for Robert”, Lyanna’s disappearance was also “for Robert” and also, as Ned’s dream implies for a “bed of blood” but not Lyanna’s.



Lyanna was possibly romantic, and perhaps she was even in love with Robert, but she also understood that he was going to be a bad husband, surely at the behest of her father. Rickard clearly knew of Robert’s bastard and no father with common sense wants his daughter married to a man who goes through life having bastards who may eventually endanger his family’s position.



That’s what Lyanna’s “bed of Blood” is all about, not her blood, but Robert’s bastard daughter. Robert was already engaged to Lyanna when he had his first bastard, that is, he had already broken his part of the deal with the Starks.



Rickard did the same thing that Ned tried to do with Sansa, only Lyanna listened to her father. The image of Robert who loves tournaments, hunts, and women is the same as that of Ramsey Bolton, a little less brutal and more socially accepted, but with the same results, that is, hunting women for sport, with no regard of the consequences.



It was Whent that “took” Lyanna, that’s why he “disappears” in the Trident, just as she did.



Furthermore, it is Oswell, not Rhaegar who crowns Lyanna, it’s him who wins the tournament in Rhaegar’s black armor.



In the memories of all those who were in the tournament, no one remembers Whent except Jaime, who leaves during the first day, and Ned that remembers him helping Jaime to his feet, that is, symbolically, he is removing him from the real competition, which was Lyanna’s hand.



Rhaegar was “capable” but not great as he seemed to be that day, but Lyanna was in love and Oswell was in love, and love, true love, is magical, so it seemed that no lance could touch him.



“She was more beautiful than that,” (…) She deserved more than darkness …”



Oswell was known for his dark humor and of course for his “black bat”. But, in addition, Oswell won Lyanna dressed in black, wearing Rhaegar’s armor. That’s what Lyanna’s “darkness” is all about, not the insane Rhaegar, but the hidden Whent.



“The king touched her cheek, his fingers brushing across the rough stone as gently as if it were living flesh”



The “rough stone” is Oswell who appears in Ned’s dream sharpening his blade, threatening. I think Oswell was just the opposite, he was really gentle. Who is a threat to Ned’s life is not his brother-in-law Oswell, but his brother Brandon, who are confused in the dream, because Ned thinks of Robert as his brother, and Oswell was obviously a threat to Robert.



The last proof that it is Oswell the one who wins Lyanna, is in the identity of the “Knight of the Laughing Tree”



“The device upon his shield was a heart tree of the old gods, a white weirwood with a laughing red face.”



The KotLT shield represents 3 different people, all 3 laughing.



“He remembered Brandon’s laughter, and Robert’s berserk valor in the melee, the way he laughed as he unhorsed men left and right. He remembered Jaime Lannister, a golden youth in scaled white armor, kneeling on the grass in front of the king’s pavilion and making his vows to protect and defend King Aerys. Afterward, Ser Oswell Whent helped Jaime to his feet”.



The heart tree represents the laughing Brandon Stark, surely laughing at his sister’s suitors, since the four Whents lost on the first day, and laughing at the suitors as Oberyn laughed at Elia’s as well.

The red face laughing is Robert, who laughs “as he unhorsed men left and right” because that’s really what the king loved, tournaments and being drunk until his face was red.

The one who laughs last, and laughs better, and the one who truly had humor, even if it was black, is Oswell, the “White sword“, the one who marries Lyanna, the “White weirwood”

The “golden youth” in Ned’s memories is Lyanna, “kneeling”, her knees only bent for true love and marrying for love, is worth gold. Lyanna and Oswell’s is the only story with a happy ending as the name of her beloved suggest: Oswell Whent, “went well”.



Finally Ned told Arya:



“Lyanna might have carried a sword, if my lord father had allowed it.” Arya II AGoT



That’s exactly what Lyanna did, she “carried” one of the “white swords” Oswell Whent.



The Lyanna-Arya-Harrenhal connection is evident. Furthermore, Arya also ends up in Harrenhal “for Robert”, with the KG involved.



As I said at the beginning Lyanna’s clues were “white” and “gold”:



• Lyanna, represents Arthur, “the sword of the morning” that is, what awakens Ned. Will comes down from the tree thinking that Waymar’s sword was the proof he needed to take to Gared or Mormont, because they would understand the meaning of the broken sword. The Dayne’s sword is white, Lyanna demands a promise from Ned, something that costs Ned “gold”. We have white and gold. White Sword and “gold love” .




3) The Sword in the Darkness



Now let’s talk briefly about Brandon Stark and the faith of all the others missing guards, so we can finally talk about Jon and magic.



This is what we know about Brandon, the Starks “sword”:



Waymar’s sword was “castle forged” with 3 sapphires, sapphires are blue, like the eye of the “ice dragon” that points north.

The “blue” winter rose, refers to the “maid” in Bael’s song, the bard changes the flower for the maiden through whom he becomes father of the next Lord Stark.

So, it seems pretty clear that Brandon changed the maiden with the cold blue eyes Cat, for the maiden with the “laughing eyes”, Ashara; and again. it can also be linked to the “Knight of the laughing Tree”. Brandon was laughing, Ashara had “laughing eyes” and the “red face” is about Jon and Ghost.



The Daynes have a peculiarity that no other Westerosi family has, their “magic sword” can be wielded by any member of the family who is considered worthy. In the other families, the sword always passes to the eldest son.



I think Brandon’s decision to change from Cat to Ashara had something to do with this.



This is symbolized in Waymar’s duel (that represents Brandon), once he is “reborn” he chokes Will (Lyanna), he transmits the “cold”. I think what Brandon transmitted to Lyanna was the wisdom of the only words we know the maiden ever told: “love is sweet but it cannot change a man’s nature.” Just as Jon transmitted his own wisdom to Arya, “stick them with the pointy end”.



The choice had to do with the way the Daynes pass their own sword, to the one who is considered worthy. Brandon’s wife had to be worthy of being the next “Lady Stark” and the mother of the next Lord of Winterfell and Cat lost the duel with Ashara, without knowing it, in another duel.



“When Brandon saw that Petyr wore only helm and breastplate and mail, he took off most of his armor. Petyr had begged her for a favor he might wear, but she had turned him away. (…) “He is only a foolish boy, but I have loved him like a brother. It would grieve me to see him die.” And her betrothed looked at her with the cool grey eyes of a Stark and promised to spare the boy who loved her. (…) “Yield!” he called, more than once, but Petyr would only shake his head and fight on, grimly. When the river was lapping at their ankles, Brandon finally ended it (…) He looked at her as he fell and murmured “Cat” as the bright blood came flowing out between his mailed fingers. She thought she had forgotten that.” Catelyn VII – AGoT



It was Cat’s attitude in this duel that made Brandon consider her not worthy. Brandon was at Riverrun spending time with his fiancée, and obviously watching her. It is immediately after this duel that Brandon goes to “die” to KL. This duel defined Cat’s luck.



Littlefinger, as Waymar, faced someone far superior, who even has a better armor than the one he has. The person watching the duel, Cat, assumes that the one who falls does so out of love, as Will assumes that Royce dies “like a man” and the reality is that the duel could have been stopped at any time if Cat, like Will, screamed, which she didn’t do, as Will didn’t.



Cat had told Brandon that Petyr was like a brother to her, and I think that’s exactly why Brandon doesn’t consider her worthy. Cat just stared as her “brother” was humiliated and made no sound. Brandon, rode out and never came back.



Ashara on the other hand, allegedly danced with Ned who was too shy, just because Brandon asked her to, so at the very least she was kind, although I think what Waymar says in his duel “dance with me then” suggests that Brandon wanted to “dance” with Ashara.



In Ned’s dream, Ser Gerold tells him that the KG “does not flee”.



Ser Jaime, who shared time with Hightower, says he was the most loyal to the King, but I think Jaime failed to identify something in Ser Gerold, and it was that the LC, like him, just tolerated the king because of the queen, but perhaps in a platonic way like Selmy’s feelings for Dany.



“Jaime was commanded to return to King’s Landing to guard the queen and little Prince Viserys, who’d remained behind. Even when the White Bull offered to take that duty himself, so Jaime might compete in Lord Whent’s tourney, Aerys had refused.”



As for Rheaegar and the prophecy, if it is true that Rhaegar was looking for his “third head”, and I believe he was, he had no need to kidnap any woman, the woman he needed, was right there, in front of his eyes all the time. The prophecy said that the “promised prince” was to be born from the line of Aerys and Rhaella. Rhaegar raped or had sex with his mother and he is Dany’s father, that is why Craster is in the novels and that is why Gilly’s son is called “Monster”.



After Lord Rickard’s gruesome death, Ser Gerold left Kings Landing and never returned. Ser Gerold is the KG that really flew.



“As for Lord Rickard, the steel of his breastplate turned cherry-red before the end, and his gold melted off his spurs and dripped down into the fire. I stood at the foot of the Iron Throne in my white armor and white cloak, filling my head with thoughts of Cersei.” Catelyn VII



It is clear from Jaime’s description of Rickard’s death, why he ends up killing Aerys, the colors he remembers so vividly are those that represent his family, the “cherry-red” and the “gold”. It was he, “the heir” who was symbolically dying strangled on the floor. That’s why Jaime kills Aerys, for him, it is an absolutely personal murder.



As for Brandon’s “death”, the purpose was surely to start the war, and end once and for all the dragon’s madness. Likely, the Starks intended to become Kings in the North again, the south never gave them anything but problems. I believe Arthur Dayne was part of the plot, he seemed like a great guy and probably was sick of all the dragon bullshit, and likely, afraid for his sister’s life since she was one of Elia’s ladies in waiting.



“Ethan Glover was Brandon’s squire,” Catelyn said. “He was the only one to survive. The others were Jeffory Mallister, Kyle Royce, and Elbert Arryn, Jon Arryn’s nephew and heir.” It was queer how she still remembered the names, after so many years. “Aerys accused them of treason and summoned their fathers to court to answer the charge, with the sons as hostages. When they came, he had them murdered without trial. Fathers and sons both.”



Of the 3 men in the prologue, Will was a “poacher” sent to the wall by the Mallisters, Waymar was a Royce, and Gared is the old man who had to make sure that “no fire” was lit.



Surely the conspiracy plan wasn’t for the heirs to die, but for Aerys to do what he did, summon “their fathers to court to answer the charge, with the sons as hostages”



The rebellion didn’t start because Aerys asked for Robert and Ned’s heads, that is a lie told by Jon Arryn, the rebellion begins as Cat says and Jaime confirms, when Arryn is called to King’s Landing to answer for Elbert’s crime. Instead of going, Arryn starts the rebellion using his “sons” as a shield and causing all the other fathers and sons deaths, including Lord Rickard’s.



Arthur Dayne is the only KG left that needs to be located. It is the simplest. Arthur changed the white cloak for the black cloak, but not before giving himself his deserved punishment for the role he played.



“When dawn came his knees were raw and bloody. “All knights must bleed, Jaime,” Ser Arthur Dayne had said, when he saw. “Blood is the seal of our devotion.” With dawn he tapped him on the shoulder; the pale blade was so sharp that even that light touch cut through Jaime’s tunic, so he bled anew. He never felt it. A boy knelt; a knight rose” Jaime I- AFfC



Arthur’s role was to be a “poacher”, and as such he punished himself by cutting 3 fingers off his right hand, because Dayne was left-handed. I think Arthur left the sword and his 3 fingers somewhere in the Red Keep to be presumed dead.



That is why when we see him again in the NW using the name “Qhorin Halfhand”, he is missing 3 fingers. The story of how Qhorin lost his fingers is as legendary as he had to learn to fight with his left hand, because Dayne was left-handed.



Regarding the sword, I think Ned simply found it and assumed that Arthur was dead. The “abandonment” of the sword is supported by the discovery in the prologue of the wildling battle-axe, that Will thinks it was a valuable weapon and that no one would abandon such a weapon. Furthermore, Will himself thinks of carrying Waymar’s sword as evidence of what had happened. And it’s precisely when Will pick up the sword that Waymar “rises”, which support the version of Ned “trading” Arthur’s sword for Jon (Brandon’s sword).



The same happened with “Dawn”, no one in his right mind would leave that sword. Ned kept the sword and went to Starfall to return it and probaby to see Ashara one last time, when he arrived, what awaited him was his brother’s prize.



The last thing left to explain is what Dayne and Brandon were up to while Ned killed Ashara and robbed Jon. Ned’s has the answer:



“Ned would sooner entrust a child to a pit viper than to Lord Tywin, but he left his doubts unspoken” Eddard I – AGoT



You wouldn’t entrust a child to a viper, but you would surely entrust it to a wolf and a shining white knight, just as Jon entrusted Mance’s son to Aemon and Sam.



The idea of ​​the conspiracy, which surely had Varys as a fundamental part, was to put an end to Rhaegar and Aerys because they were totally insane. But “someone” saved Aegon, and I think those two someone, were Arthur and Brandon, they took Aegon not from King’s Landing but from Dragonstone with Elia’s complicity, because she was probably just scared of Rhaegar’s crusade and the possibility of another “Summerhal event”.



Elia and Ashara were surely friends, and the Dayne’s and Martell’s are related not only buy blood but because the Martell’s are the Dayne’s liege, so Ashara and Arthur helping Elia makes sence.



As for Varys, I believe that when he goes to see Ned and asks him to confess he does so knowing exactly what he’s talking about, knowing that Ned is a usurper and that Jon is no “baseborn”. 



Thanks for reading! and sorry for any grammar or spelling mistakes since english is not my first language