“Never forget what you are, for surely the world will not. Make it your strength. Then it can never be your weakness. Armour yourself in it, and it will never be used to hurt you.” ― George R.R. Martin, A Game of Thrones
Harry Potter canon never specified her race or skin color. Just bushy brown hair, brown eyes and big teeth.
LOL! That's me right now but I'm too shy to take a selfie of my Afro puffs...
“Never forget what you are, for surely the world will not. Make it your strength. Then it can never be your weakness. Armour yourself in it, and it will never be used to hurt you.” ― George R.R. Martin, A Game of Thrones
I think it was you and me who talked about heteropaternal superfecundation among wolves?
Somewhere back in the day I worked out a schedule that showed Lyanna could have given birth twice in the time frame she was missing. Is still possible.
that was you and me, w/r/t Mama Wolf and Bloodraven in a wolf suit possibly being responsible for Ghost.
But, either way, it's possible. I *personally* think the twins idea would be more realistic and more likely than two separate births (even Irish twins), but that's just me.
That's definitely the easiest way to wrap it up, should George want to blow up the internet, lol!
Q3: Sack of King's Landing (this is ~one year from JA calling banners, consistent with text).
I'm a bit dubious that the sack of KL can count as the end of the war. Ned's last battles in the south were surely part of the war. The lifting of the siege of Storm's End seems a much better cut-off.
1) Jon can indeed be born around the Sack and be 8-9 months older than Dany. 2) Dany can indeed be conceived at the time of the Sack in order to be born in Q2 284, although it might be pushing it a bit. Conception moved back to around the time of the Trident pushes it even further. 3) I believe it's more likely that there are several weeks between the Trident and the Sack. 4) There is no way that it's only a couple of weeks between the Sack and the TOJ. 5) Ergo, Jon cannot be newly born around the time of the Sack AND the TOJ. 6) Jon can be born around the time of the Sack and be 8-9 months older than Dany per SSM, but he CANNOT be just-born at the TOJ and be 8-9 months older than Dany.
Then you have the Rossart problem.
Darry was in KL when Chelsted was burned. Rossart was hand for a fortnight, dying during the sack. In theory this makes Darry to Trident, battle of trident, Ned to KL all happen in two weeks. We can stretch this out a bit by assuming that Rossart wasn't made hand instantly (though unlikely it would have taken long) and that the fortnight is an approximation. However we know he was Hand when news reached KL of the loss at the Trident at the very latest.
What I interpret from this is:
1. GRRM + numbers = nope nope nope. 2. A couple of weeks between sack and TOJ is unlikely, but then so is the entire Rossart timeline. GRRM + numbers = nope nope nope. There's really no reason why the two events have to be more than a month apart, and that allows us to make more sense of GRRMs 8-9 weeks statement. 3. GRRM + numbers = nope nope nope, so when GRRM comes up with something like Jon being 8-9 months older we should be looking for a rough jamming together of "abouts" rather than a coherent timeline. I'd say the most likely thought process behind it would be something like "Well Dany was born two weeks before the sack. Jon was born after the sack. Not long after. Couple of weeks tops. So that's less than a month's difference. Call it 8-9 months, that covers the bases." 4 GRRM + numbers = nope nope nope. 5. Given GRRMs ability to compress travel times etc. to an unreasonable degree, Jon's birth could be pretty much any time from immediately before the sack (possibly making him a few days older than Robb) to just as Ned arrived at the ToJ (though this would pretty much be the maximum mangling of timelines even Mr. Nope Nope Nope could manage). 6. Without further information, the simplest way to rationalise GRRMs statements with the text is to allow for his chronological vagaries and say Jon was born within two weeks of the sack, and Ned was at the tower shortly afterwards, within a month of the sack.
Last Edit: Dec 22, 2015 20:28:58 GMT by kingmonkey
Q3: Sack of King's Landing (this is ~one year from JA calling banners, consistent with text).
I'm a bit dubious that the sack of KL can count as the end of the war. Ned's last battles in the south were surely part of the war. The lifting of the siege of Storm's End seems a much better cut-off.
1) Jon can indeed be born around the Sack and be 8-9 months older than Dany. 2) Dany can indeed be conceived at the time of the Sack in order to be born in Q2 284, although it might be pushing it a bit. Conception moved back to around the time of the Trident pushes it even further. 3) I believe it's more likely that there are several weeks between the Trident and the Sack. 4) There is no way that it's only a couple of weeks between the Sack and the TOJ. 5) Ergo, Jon cannot be newly born around the time of the Sack AND the TOJ. 6) Jon can be born around the time of the Sack and be 8-9 months older than Dany per SSM, but he CANNOT be just-born at the TOJ and be 8-9 months older than Dany.
Then you have the Rossart problem.
Darry was in KL when Chelsted was burned. Rossart was hand for a fortnight, dying during the sack. In theory this makes Darry to Trident, battle of trident, Ned to KL all happen in two weeks. We can stretch this out a bit by assuming that Rossart wasn't made hand instantly (though unlikely it would have taken long) and that the fortnight is an approximation. However we know he was Hand when news reached KL of the loss at the Trident at the very latest.
What I interpret from this is:
1. GRRM + numbers = nope nope nope. 2. A couple of weeks between sack and TOJ is unlikely, but then so is the entire Rossart timeline. GRRM + numbers = nope nope nope. There's really no reason why the two events have to be more than a month apart, and that allows us to make more sense of GRRMs 8-9 weeks statement. 3. GRRM + numbers = nope nope nope, so when GRRM comes up with something like Jon being 8-9 months older we should be looking for a rough jamming together of "abouts" rather than a coherent timeline. I'd say the most likely thought process behind it would be something like "Well Dany was born two weeks before the sack. Jon was born after the sack. Not long after. Couple of weeks tops. So that's less than a month's difference. Call it 8-9 months, that covers the bases." 4 GRRM + numbers = nope nope nope. 5. Given GRRMs ability to compress travel times etc. to an unreasonable degree, Jon's birth could be pretty much any time from immediately before the sack (possibly making him a few days older than Robb) to just as Ned arrived at the ToJ (though this would pretty much be the maximum mangling of timelines even Mr. Nope Nope Nope could manage). 6. Without further information, the simplest way to rationalise GRRMs statements with the text is to allow for his chronological vagaries and say Jon was born within two weeks of the sack, and Ned was at the tower shortly afterwards, within a month of the sack.
I might be way off, but the fact that GRRM says '8 or 9 months', and yes he is terrible at numbers, makes me think that he's thinking not '8 or 9 months' but rather 'one full human pregnancy'. Perhaps he ties the birth of one with the conception of the other?
I'm a bit dubious that the sack of KL can count as the end of the war. Ned's last battles in the south were surely part of the war. The lifting of the siege of Storm's End seems a much better cut-off.
Then you have the Rossart problem.
Darry was in KL when Chelsted was burned. Rossart was hand for a fortnight, dying during the sack. In theory this makes Darry to Trident, battle of trident, Ned to KL all happen in two weeks. We can stretch this out a bit by assuming that Rossart wasn't made hand instantly (though unlikely it would have taken long) and that the fortnight is an approximation. However we know he was Hand when news reached KL of the loss at the Trident at the very latest.
What I interpret from this is:
1. GRRM + numbers = nope nope nope. 2. A couple of weeks between sack and TOJ is unlikely, but then so is the entire Rossart timeline. GRRM + numbers = nope nope nope. There's really no reason why the two events have to be more than a month apart, and that allows us to make more sense of GRRMs 8-9 weeks statement. 3. GRRM + numbers = nope nope nope, so when GRRM comes up with something like Jon being 8-9 months older we should be looking for a rough jamming together of "abouts" rather than a coherent timeline. I'd say the most likely thought process behind it would be something like "Well Dany was born two weeks before the sack. Jon was born after the sack. Not long after. Couple of weeks tops. So that's less than a month's difference. Call it 8-9 months, that covers the bases." 4 GRRM + numbers = nope nope nope. 5.I might be way off, but the fact that GRRM says '8 or 9 months', and yes he is terrible at numbers, makes me think that he's thinking not '8 or 9 months' but rather 'one full human pregnancy'. Perhaps he ties the birth of one with the conception of the other?
Or like many folks without experience with pregnant ladies, he may not know that women give birth in the beginning of the 10th month.
I might be way off, but the fact that GRRM says '8 or 9 months', and yes he is terrible at numbers, makes me think that he's thinking not '8 or 9 months' but rather 'one full human pregnancy'. Perhaps he ties the birth of one with the conception of the other?
Precisely. This is GRRM shorthand for "Jon was born shortly after Dany was conceived, I'd say less than a month after though".
I'm a bit dubious that the sack of KL can count as the end of the war. Ned's last battles in the south were surely part of the war. The lifting of the siege of Storm's End seems a much better cut-off.
Could be, but I'm not convinced. I still believe that there's several months between JA calling banners and the beginning of the siege, but....we'll probably not agree so I won't dwell. It is what it is.
1. GRRM + numbers = nope nope nope. 2. A couple of weeks between sack and TOJ is unlikely, but then so is the entire Rossart timeline. GRRM + numbers = nope nope nope. There's really no reason why the two events have to be more than a month apart, and that allows us to make more sense of GRRMs 8-9 weeks statement. 3. GRRM + numbers = nope nope nope, so when GRRM comes up with something like Jon being 8-9 months older we should be looking for a rough jamming together of "abouts" rather than a coherent timeline. I'd say the most likely thought process behind it would be something like "Well Dany was born two weeks before the sack. Jon was born after the sack. Not long after. Couple of weeks tops. So that's less than a month's difference. Call it 8-9 months, that covers the bases." 4 GRRM + numbers = nope nope nope. 5. Given GRRMs ability to compress travel times etc. to an unreasonable degree, Jon's birth could be pretty much any time from immediately before the sack (possibly making him a few days older than Robb) to just as Ned arrived at the ToJ (though this would pretty much be the maximum mangling of timelines even Mr. Nope Nope Nope could manage). 6. Without further information, the simplest way to rationalise GRRMs statements with the text is to allow for his chronological vagaries and say Jon was born within two weeks of the sack, and Ned was at the tower shortly afterwards, within a month of the sack.
While I agree wholeheartedly with your GRRM equation (and always have), the whole Chelsted/Rossart/Darry problem is complex - or, unsolveable, really, especially when you factor in Tywin's supposed movements too. So MY interpretation is that 1) GRRM didn't write this to be analysed to the degree that it has been (true) and 2) Jaime is an unreliable narrator in terms of timeline.
So really, it could go one way or another in terms of span between events, and we will just have to snuggle up to our respective interpretations until we get more data.
I might be way off, but the fact that GRRM says '8 or 9 months', and yes he is terrible at numbers, makes me think that he's thinking not '8 or 9 months' but rather 'one full human pregnancy'. Perhaps he ties the birth of one with the conception of the other?
Given some of the thoughts various folks have had about blood magic/sacrifice/hatching dragons and all that, IMO this has a very good chance of being right on the money.
Yes. What an author says and what an author ends up actually producing (assuming they do actually produce something) are not the same thing. Sometimes it's quite close to what they have in their heads, but other times it varies greatly. So trust nothing until it's between two covers and written solely by the author.
Yup. Couldn't agree more. GRRM is quite good at not revealing anything in SSMs. Instead, his comments are usually too cryptic, or rephrasings of canon (i.e., only Ned and Howland living to ride away, nonliteral fever dream, etc). While he doesn't want to give anything away, he also wants to tease his fans enough to keep them guessing, and keep them reading. So yeah, while SSMs might provide some interesting conversation topics, they are far from canon and are often intentionally misleading.
"I can see it. You have more of the north in you than your brothers."
Q3: Sack of King's Landing (this is ~one year from JA calling banners, consistent with text).
I'm a bit dubious that the sack of KL can count as the end of the war. Ned's last battles in the south were surely part of the war. The lifting of the siege of Storm's End seems a much better cut-off.
1) Jon can indeed be born around the Sack and be 8-9 months older than Dany. 2) Dany can indeed be conceived at the time of the Sack in order to be born in Q2 284, although it might be pushing it a bit. Conception moved back to around the time of the Trident pushes it even further. 3) I believe it's more likely that there are several weeks between the Trident and the Sack. 4) There is no way that it's only a couple of weeks between the Sack and the TOJ. 5) Ergo, Jon cannot be newly born around the time of the Sack AND the TOJ. 6) Jon can be born around the time of the Sack and be 8-9 months older than Dany per SSM, but he CANNOT be just-born at the TOJ and be 8-9 months older than Dany.
Then you have the Rossart problem.
Darry was in KL when Chelsted was burned. Rossart was hand for a fortnight, dying during the sack. In theory this makes Darry to Trident, battle of trident, Ned to KL all happen in two weeks. We can stretch this out a bit by assuming that Rossart wasn't made hand instantly (though unlikely it would have taken long) and that the fortnight is an approximation. However we know he was Hand when news reached KL of the loss at the Trident at the very latest.
What I interpret from this is:
1. GRRM + numbers = nope nope nope. 2. A couple of weeks between sack and TOJ is unlikely, but then so is the entire Rossart timeline. GRRM + numbers = nope nope nope. There's really no reason why the two events have to be more than a month apart, and that allows us to make more sense of GRRMs 8-9 weeks statement. 3. GRRM + numbers = nope nope nope, so when GRRM comes up with something like Jon being 8-9 months older we should be looking for a rough jamming together of "abouts" rather than a coherent timeline. I'd say the most likely thought process behind it would be something like "Well Dany was born two weeks before the sack. Jon was born after the sack. Not long after. Couple of weeks tops. So that's less than a month's difference. Call it 8-9 months, that covers the bases." 4 GRRM + numbers = nope nope nope. 5. Given GRRMs ability to compress travel times etc. to an unreasonable degree, Jon's birth could be pretty much any time from immediately before the sack (possibly making him a few days older than Robb) to just as Ned arrived at the ToJ (though this would pretty much be the maximum mangling of timelines even Mr. Nope Nope Nope could manage). 6. Without further information, the simplest way to rationalise GRRMs statements with the text is to allow for his chronological vagaries and say Jon was born within two weeks of the sack, and Ned was at the tower shortly afterwards, within a month of the sack.
I have to disagree and agree a bit. The man when it comes to travel times and all that i would say he probably didn't things through and he knows that.He admits to this giving him quite a headache.However, i believe him and agree with GRRM when he say put away the ruler and the compass etc and just read the story.I think the clues are strong enough without going crazy with the numbers. There's a lot of differeing opinions on the variables that could have made people's movement plauisible bedpending on what they are look at,but again i think that won't give us any answers only a headache.
I think the most likely answer and i've said this before GRRM knows his ssm revealed nothing because in the end Dany's time of birth will prove to be not what she and most of us think.His answer will still be correct but correct considering Dany's actual birth.
"The world is full of obvious things which nobody by any chance ever observes"--Sherlock Holmes"
Thank you, Voice, but I was looking for a timeline for events prior to the current story. I was aware of the Westeros one, but I'm not sure it's all that accurate.
I have been working on a Rebellion one, if that's what you're wanting. It isn't complete and I have broken it down by quarters instead of actual months - quarters give us a 3 month range to work with and allows for overlap/wiggle room/bad GRRM math.
Q1 : January - March Q2 : April - June Q3 : July - September Q4 : October - December
"Overlap" simply means around the end of one quarter/beginning of the next.
280 Q1: Rhaegar/Elia marry. Mama Martell still alive. Q2: Q3: Q4: Rhaenys born. Elia begins bedrest ~6 mos.
281 Q1 - overlap: Elia recovered. Escorted through Kingswood/Hightower injured. Arianne meets Rhaenys (mentions holding the baby in her TWOW sample chapter - this could only have happened between 281 and early 282, before the war) Q2 - overlap: KWB defeated. (Led by Arthur Dayne, as Hightower still recovering from wound. Simon Toyne killed. Jaime knighted.) Tywin still Hand, Cersei in KL. Q3 - overlap: False Spring, Tourney at Harrenhal (late Q3). Tywin/Cersei return to the Rock. Lyanna crowned; Jaime made KG; Ashara Dayne "not long at court". NOTE: I believe Elia made a trip to Dorne/met up with her Dornish family after Rhaenys' birth - Ashara returned to court with her at that time. Q4: Winter returns with a vengeance. Snow covers KL, Blackwater freezes.
282 Q1: Fires burn in KL, Rhaegar not there to see them. Elia and Baby Aegon on Dragonstone. Q2: Brandon/Petyr duel after pending Cat marriage announced. Just shy of wedding day Brandon "heard the news about Lyanna" and leaves. Sam Tarly conceived. Overlap: Brandon/Rickard go to KL and are killed. Aerys calls for heads. Q3: Jon Arryn revolts. Ned betrothed to Cat. Lady Dustin married "not half a year" when Jon Arryn/Robert called banners - Lord Ryswell had wanted to marry Barbrey to Brandon (probably because they were already shagging), but married her to Dustin instead after that no longer possible due to announcement of Brandon's wedding to Cat (a Q1 wedding announcement to Q3 banner-call is about 6-8 months - just about right for Ryswell to find Barbrey a quickie husband). Overlap: Fighting already in Vale, Gulltown. Ned returns to Winterfell - Fisherman's Daughter. Battles of Ashford and Summerhall. Randall Tarly has a victory for the Crown. Q4: Margaery Tyrell conceived (has to be Q4 given her name day window - I'm assuming Mace returned to Highgarden briefly after Ashford to reform his vanguard to march south). Mace Tyrell's van marches to SE to begin siege. Rhaegar AWOL, JonConn named Hand. Ned gathers army, rides south.
283 Q1: Battle of the Bells, Rebel victory at Stoney Sept. Rhae Rhae still away. Arryn heir killed in battle. Ned returns to Riverrun, double wedding. Cat pregnant. JonConn exiled. Mama Martell dead/gone, Doran Martell now Prince of Dorne. Samwell Tarly born. Q2: More fighting in south. Ned off at war, Rhaegar "returns from the south" and starts organizing Royal forces; Dornish marching up the Boneway. Overlap: Trident. Rhaella supposedly conceives Dany. Margaery Tyrell born (late summer birthday, like August) - conceived before Mace left for Siege in late Q3/early Q4 Q3: Sack of King's Landing (this is ~one year from JA calling banners, consistent with text). Robb born - A Cat POV mentions being safe at RR w/newborn Robb as city torn apart Overlap: Siege at SE lifted (this is ~one year from Battle of Ashford, consistent with text - Davos confirms TWICE through POV in late summer/early fall 299 that his delivery of onions/fish was "16 years ago"; siege lifted shortly after) Q4: Ned heads south, Tower of Joy. Robert tasks Stannis with taking Dragonstone, Stannis begins building fleet.
284 Q1: Ned's long return trip from Dorne Overlap: Ned back at Winterfell (this is ~one year after marriage to Cat, consistent with text), Jon there too Q2: Dany born (supposedly) during fierce summer storm Q3: late in quarter, Willem Darry & children flee to Braavos Overlap: Assault on Dragonstone (this is ~one year after lifting of Siege, consistent with text) Q4: War over, Robert and Cersei to marry.
I interpret a few thing from this timeline:
1) Jon can indeed be born around the Sack and be 8-9 months older than Dany. 2) Dany can indeed be conceived at the time of the Sack in order to be born in Q2 284, although it might be pushing it a bit. Conception moved back to around the time of the Trident pushes it even further. 3) I believe it's more likely that there are several weeks between the Trident and the Sack. 4) There is no way that it's only a couple of weeks between the Sack and the TOJ. 5) Ergo, Jon cannot be newly born around the time of the Sack AND the TOJ. 6) Jon can be born around the time of the Sack and be 8-9 months older than Dany per SSM, but he CANNOT be just-born at the TOJ and be 8-9 months older than Dany.
*I* think that Lyanna was taken in the spring, and whatever "news" about her (IMO: that she was being held by the Crown to be executed) began circulating spring into summer. Her family marches in early summer to defend her, the Stark men are killed in summer (by a fire king, how appropriate), and war officially breaks out in fall. Winter begins, as does Ned's march south with his men, and the siege on SE. Fighting, fighting, more fighting until the next summer, when Rhaegar is killed on the Trident late in that season. Fall brings the fall of KL and the Targaryen dynasty, and the lifting of the Siege. In winter again, Ned finds no Joy at the Tower, but returns home in time to dream of spring.
Now, all you Beltane folks can play with the seasonality of that and have fun. ::pork::
I needed to bump this so I can find it again.
Darkstar will be the next Vulture King.
Craster has 19 daughters and there are 19 castles on the Wall, coincidence I think not!