For myself I have always liked the N+A. But A+L would be a close second. The fisherman's daughter is Ashara in mind for any theory if a romance did exist but not necciceraly a birth. And an assault by Robert but not a child at the tourney. Starkcest if it turns out that way would not surprise me. Finally, fDany is a given at this point. Imho.
I think there is merit and enough clues for most of the theories to work in vacuum. It is in the disqualifying based on the whole picture that will eventually lead us to the correct one. But one thing that strikes me most with all the great work done on the theories...it seems some elements could/Should be incorporated into others which just might provide the ultimate truth. But clearly every theory as it stands now needs more info and some more then others . I guess I am saying at this current juncture we cannot rule out any of them.
I've always had two issues with Ned and Ashara being the parents.
Firstly there's no reason for Ned to hide Jon's true parentage if he and Ashara are the parents. Nobody's coming after a Stark / Dayne bastard with swords. There's no reason for him to gruffly tell Catelyn "never mention that name again" when she asks if Ashara is the mother if she really is the mother - and even if it was a heat of the moment thing, there wouldn't be a reason for him not to come clean eventually. Theirs might have been an arranged marriage borne out of duty at first, but there's real love there by the time of GoT.
Secondly, we know that Robb and Jon are roughly of an age. They were both back at Winterfell after the war, when very young, of an age where even a couple of months difference in age is very readily noticeable. We also know when Robb was conceived - Ned and Catelyn's wedding night. So it's almost impossible logistically for Ned to be Jon's father, and it's also unlikely (imo) given Ned's character that he's cheating on Catelyn so soon after their wedding.
The first objection applies to Arthur and Lyanna as well. If the parents aren't as controversial as Rhaegar and Lyanna, what's the motive to hide their identities?
Absolutely convinced that it’s Lyanna and Brandon. Almost no doubt in my mind now.
One thing I find interesting about this combination for Jon's parents is that neither Lyanna or Brandon play any role in Jon's story. Not on an obvious level, and not really on a subtle level either. One of my biggest arguments against Rhaegar as Jon's father is that Rhaegar plays no role in Jon's story. Neither does Brandon. Lyanna doesn't either, actually, unless one fills her into the role of Jon's mystery mother. He thinks of Ned often, and Benjen a good amount to. Rickard Stark even get's a mention in Jon's story, but not Brandon or Lyanna.
Lyanna Mormont get's two mentions from Jon's POV, and her sassy spirit is noted, which could draw us to Lyanna Stark. I don't think Jon even focus on Brandon or Lyanna's statues in the crypts in though or deed. Brandon Stark never get's a direct mention in Jon's story, but other Brandon Stark's are mentioned, which might mean something. Brandon the Builder and Brandon the Dauhterless. Brandon the Burner and Brandon the Shipwright but maybe that's enough Brandon references. Jon never even refers to Bran as Brandon, not once that I can think of. But maybe those quiet nods to different Lyanna's and different Brandon's is enough of a hint! I really can't decide on anything, anymore!
However, there are some hints that do lead one to think of Brandon and Lyanna. I can't discount that combination in the parentage soup. I certainly will be fairly surprised if the answer isn't Starkcest, but Robert is still on my radar, and Mance and Arthur, if Lyanna is the mother. Ned and Ashara is possible, but I have recently been toying with Brandon and Ashara as Jon's parents, and the odds of them having had married. But I can't get around the idea that Ned's thoughts seem to place Jon in the bastard category, which means Jon IS a bastard, or Eddard doesn't know any different.
It would certainly make sense if Jon was Brandon's son, making him the son of the eldest son. That works in Westeros society. But not so much in the wildling society that Jon has become embroiled in throughout his arc!
You don't become King-beyond-the-Wall because your father was. The free folk won't follow a name, and they don't care which brother was born first. They follow fighters. ASOS-Jov X
Why did men follow Ned? Or Robert? Or Mance? Because they were fighters. Perhaps we don't have hints of Ned being the type of warrior that Robert was or Mance is, but there are several hints about Ned's skills as a commander. Perhaps a warrior too. No one outright disputes Eddard's ability or the story that he killed Ser Arthur Dayne in single combat. Something about Dawn being "alive with light" plays into that victory, I think, but I can't quite put it all together. I have tinfoil about it, but so far it looks more like a blob than any piece of origami art...
Now, this could be an allusion that both the north and the wildlings will eventually follow Jon because of his fighting skills, but it also hints that order of birth doesn't matter, not for Jon amongst his siblings, and perhaps not among Eddard and his siblings, either.
All the hints about Jon wielding his father's sword also don't seem to hint at Brandon, who as far as we know, never wielded Ice, or any special sword. Of course, this could easily tie to Arthur and Jon! Or Eddard and Jon! I always stumble when thinking of Robert here, or even Mance, who isn't noted to have a special sword at all, just a mighty fine helm!
However, over the course of different boards and threads freyfamilyreunion, you have encouraged me to look with greater detail into Brandon and Lyanna. It does have some compelling idea's within argument to Jon's parentage, but I am not by any means sold, nor would I even place a bet on it, at this point. Maybe in two more years without The Winds of Winter then my mind will have shifted as I continue to search out the solution to this puzzle.
Part of me thinks in the end, GRRM will make Jon be the son of Eddard and some random peasant named Wylla and he will have a hearty laugh over all the speculation that claims the answer is anything but the answer he put in front of us directly in the text. How sly would that be???
Their father understood as well. "You want no pup for yourself, Jon?" he asked softly.
voice , but i have R+L=D too but i can't have both , can stdaga , I
Dany is interesting, because she does have some Stark hint's in her story. She speaks, "cold as ice" and she has her whole cup of fire, cup of ice concept going on. She dreams of dragons and hears wolves. Sometimes it's hard not to imagine that she has Stark blood. But the idea for me that Lyanna bore them both, Jon and Dany, with a minimum of time between babies, is sometimes hard for me to consider seriously. Although it's certainly possible, especially with GRRM giving us the information that Dany was born "eight or nine months or thereabouts" after Jon!
Their father understood as well. "You want no pup for yourself, Jon?" he asked softly.
Is there a thread or post somewhere outlining some of the details that are pointing people towards Starkcest?
The idea is littered throughout the parentage threads on this board, but the most concise discussion is probably in S+L=J (Yes. That's right. Be afraid) although I don't think there has much discussion on the thread lately, as it has all been in the parentage threads.
The same original essay sparked discussion on the W board, as part of The Heresy Project's look into the parentage of some major characters, but I think that threat has since been archived. This essay was written by Kingmonkey (who also wrote and is a supported of the RLJ thread for that project) but I can't find that thread anymore on Westeros. Perhaps I am not searching hard enough, but I do think it's odd that it has just disappeared. Anyway, if I should find a link to that thread, I will try to remember to post it here.
Their father understood as well. "You want no pup for yourself, Jon?" he asked softly.
joe, the premise for me is it has to be a dark secret for Ned not to tell anyone about Jon's parentage . Most assume R+L=J and there is evidence for that but i find it too obvious and contrived . The hidden hero is the oldest trope in fantasy