So I binged their entire library last night and might be my new favorite ASOIAF you tubers.
They have an excellent series on Eddard + Ashara =Jon. Also Rhaegar + Lyanna = Aegon.
I am waiting for more on Varys working for Bloodraven. They are on the COTF are the true evil.
Back on this series... Good stuff. Not sure if I am on board with the whole order of the green hand. Val as Alycia doesn't fly with me. Arthur Dayne as Mance makes sense to me. Oswell When as Qhorin Half hand is plausible. Gerald Hightower as Tormund is interest but the least convincing.
Also I could have sworn that Mance has been in the Frost fangs for 20 years which couldnt make him Arthur dayne.
Darkstar will be the next Vulture King.
Craster has 19 daughters and there are 19 castles on the Wall, coincidence I think not!
They have an excellent series on Eddard + Ashara =Jon. Also Rhaegar + Lyanna = Aegon.
I really liked their timeline breakdown, which just stuck to 3 quantifiable issues instead of getting mired down in circular arguments like "Jon was born in 283 so of course Lyanna died in 283" which is how a lot of other dates are established by the general community. It's not quite was I personally find the timeline to be, but it definitely reconciles a lot of things if you think the war, or at least events "of" the war, continued into 284 instead of that it all ended in 283, of which there's no real evidence, or at least certainly not completely concrete evidence (as Robb and Jon can be 15 yet Ned will say the Sack occurred 14 years ago).
For example, the war ending in 284 solves how Robert married Cersei in 285, as established by Jaime in AFFC when he says Ilyn Payne has been Justice for 15 years as a wedding present from Robert to Tywin, while still being one of the "first" things he did as king, also well as how Joffrey can be born in 286 after being conceived sometime after the first 6 months of Robert and Cersei's marriage, whereas otherwise you get the convoluted mess that is the wiki timeline where somebody seemingly just guessed it happened in 284.
So nice to see some other people acknowledging that you can't cram everything into 283.
As to their case for Eddard + Ashara, it was a very solid, if not really groundbreaking look into it. Not that that's a bad thing, Eddard and Ashara is pretty cut and dry. As they say, Ashara is always mentioned in the context of Ned, no matter who talks about her. RLJ fans want to say that's just a red herring, but IMO a red herring would be like if just Cersei offhandedly mentioned it like she does in AGOT. Not Cat, Cersei, Harwin, Edric, Howland, etc. all talking about it. Universal stories always have at least some element of truth to them. For there to have been absolutely nothing between Ned and Ashara would be anti-climatic.
I do say not really groundbreaking look into it deliberately though. I had been aware of that SSM about "The Shadow knows" in regards to Jon's parentage, and I knew that Cat mentions Jon's mother as a "shadow" between her and Ned, but had never really connected the two. It's at minimum an interesting connection to make that GRRM would use that language for an tricky answer.
Also I liked the interpretation of the paragraph that RLJers like to say "proves" RLJ where Ned doesn't supposedly doesn't list Jon among his children. Now I already didn't belief that reasoning as IMO with the inclusion of Cat into the paragraph Cat is the anomaly that separates Jon from Robb, Sansa, Arya, Bran, and Rickon no matter what parentage is at play, and not some completely different parentage entirely. But I liked how they suggested it could be that what's really happening is that Ned is truly putting himself in Cersei's shoes. I.e wondering what would happen if someone threatened the security of their false trueborn children by revealing that they weren't actually trueborn and are instead bastards. Ned's only married to Cat, allegedly, so only the children Ned has with Cat could ever actually be exposed as secret bastards. I doubt Ned and Ashara/Wylla/whoever ever wed, but that was an interesting thought. People just look at Ned's thoughts without wondering what prompted them: Cersei's own position that Ned could reveal her children weren't trueborn, not simply the question of does Ned love his children, of which Jon is undoubtedly his son whether biologically or not.
Also I could have sworn that Mance has been in the Frost fangs for 20 years which couldnt make him Arthur dayne.
That's just in the show. In the books Jon remembers Mance visiting Winterfell as a brother back when he and Robb were boys
The king laughed. "Your Mance! Why not? I promised you a tale before, of how I knew you. Have you puzzled it out yet?"
Jon shook his head. "Did Rattleshirt send word ahead?"
"By wing? We have no trained ravens. No, I knew your face. I've seen it before. Twice."
It made no sense at first, but as Jon turned it over in his mind, dawn broke. "When you were a brother of the Watch . . ."
"Very good! Yes, that was the first time. You were just a boy, and I was all in black, one of a dozen riding escort to old Lord Commander Qorgyle when he came down to see your father at Winterfell. I was walking the wall around the yard when I came on you and your brother Robb. It had snowed the night before, and the two of you had built a great mountain above the gate and were waiting for someone likely to pass underneath."
"I remember," said Jon with a startled laugh. A young black brother on the wallwalk, yes . . . "You swore not to tell."
He therefore had to have still been in the Watch at least sometime after the Rebellion.
Your lordship lost a son at the Red Wedding. I lost four upon the Blackwater. And why? Because the Lannisters stole the throne. Go to King’s Landing and look on Tommen with your own eyes, if you doubt me. A blind man could see it. What does Stannis offer you? Vengeance. Vengeance for my sons and yours, for your husbands and your fathers and your brothers. Vengeance for your murdered lord, your murdered king, your butchered princes. Vengeance!
Also I could have sworn that Mance has been in the Frost fangs for 20 years which couldnt make him Arthur dayne.
That's just in the show. In the books Jon remembers Mance visiting Winterfell as a brother back when he and Robb were boys
The king laughed. "Your Mance! Why not? I promised you a tale before, of how I knew you. Have you puzzled it out yet?"
Jon shook his head. "Did Rattleshirt send word ahead?"
"By wing? We have no trained ravens. No, I knew your face. I've seen it before. Twice."
It made no sense at first, but as Jon turned it over in his mind, dawn broke. "When you were a brother of the Watch . . ."
"Very good! Yes, that was the first time. You were just a boy, and I was all in black, one of a dozen riding escort to old Lord Commander Qorgyle when he came down to see your father at Winterfell. I was walking the wall around the yard when I came on you and your brother Robb. It had snowed the night before, and the two of you had built a great mountain above the gate and were waiting for someone likely to pass underneath."
"I remember," said Jon with a startled laugh. A young black brother on the wallwalk, yes . . . "You swore not to tell."
He therefore had to have still been in the Watch at least sometime after the Rebellion.
20 years is show only figures. I couldn't remember. I did remember the bit about LC Qorgyle. Interesting that that is the same House that Oberyn squared for. Also odd for a Dornish lord to join the Night's Watch.
Darkstar will be the next Vulture King.
Craster has 19 daughters and there are 19 castles on the Wall, coincidence I think not!
So I binged their entire library last night and might be my new favorite ASOIAF you tubers.
Agreed! I don't know how I never came across them before... I don't agree with everything they propose, but all in all they are more convincing than just about anyone else on youtube.
As to their case for Eddard + Ashara, it was a very solid, if not really groundbreaking look into it. Not that that's a bad thing, Eddard and Ashara is pretty cut and dry. As they say, Ashara is always mentioned in the context of Ned, no matter who talks about her. RLJ fans want to say that's just a red herring, but IMO a red herring would be like if just Cersei offhandedly mentioned it like she does in AGOT. Not Cat, Cersei, Harwin, Edric, Howland, etc. all talking about it. Universal stories always have at least some element of truth to them. For there to have been absolutely nothing between Ned and Ashara would be anti-climatic.
I really liked their video on Ned and Ashara, even if I don't fully agree with all the proposed baby swapping. It is certainly true though that Winterfell seems to be the ONLY place in the Seven Kingdoms where (most) people are not aware of Ned and Ashara's love. Everyone else (Edric in Dorne, Jojen in the Neck, Cersei in KL/CR) has heard this story, and is surprised that Ned's children have not heard it. Ned's own men were talking about it after they returned from the war, that's how Catelyn heard the name. In other words, this affair was not a secret at all - it's only after RR that Ned forbid everyone in WF to speak of it.
What's also interesting is the surprise that Ned's children don't know. This suggests that - other than perhaps Ned himself- nobody thought that Ned was acting dishonorably. They expected that he would have told this story to his children, and it's a story that other Houses tell their kids. If it was a story of shame and dishonor, Jojen would not have been so surprised that Bran didn't know it. The Dayne heir named after him is, of course, further proof of this.
Which is what makes me doubt the Ned + Ashara = Jon theory. If everyone knew about Ned and Ashara, and Ashara was either dead or pretending to be dead - why couldn't Ned acknowledge that Jon is hers?
“In Qohor he is the Black Goat, in Yi Ti the Lion of Night, in Westeros the Stranger. All men must bow to him in the end, no matter if they worship the Seven or the Lord of Light, the Moon Mother or the Drowned God or the Great Shepherd. All mankind belongs to him... else somewhere in the world would be a folk who lived forever. Do you know of any folk who live forever?”
He therefore had to have still been in the Watch at least sometime after the Rebellion.
We don't know very much about Mance's age and time as KbtW, but what we do have, I like. He's old enough to have been a "young black brother" when visiting two young "brothers" at Winterfell.
Mance might have turned his cloak for the reasons he said, or others, but what I find most interesting is the timing of his ascent to power. It coincides nicely with Ned's worry of the state of the Night's Watch: Desertions and men gone missing. Ned attributes these to Mance and expects (before Robert's visit) to have to one day go and deal with the KbtW for good to end it, but we know that Ned's suspicion is likely quite wrong.
Mance is quite willing to harry the Night's Watch in order to save his fellow human beings, and wildlings like Rattleshirt certainly have no love for crows (aside from Mance himself), but we learn of far more communication (and even camaraderie, trade, and intercourse) between the Night's Watch and Free Folk from Jon's chapters than 'southern' lords like Ned grasp.
So, what's truly been doing harm to the (Winterfell's) Watch and what has truly caused Mance to rise as a king among those who do not kneel?
Well, I believe each of these questions bear the same answer: The Others.
My theory... Mance flew down off the Wall into a complete leadership vacuum. The wildlings, unlike Ned, were not people to ignore signs and omens. And well, Mance (whoever he may be) shared their faith, as he claims to have left the Night's Watch because of one such sign (the cloak). Mance's modus operandi, then, represents a unique blend of faith and realism. He'll pragmatically scour the Frostfangs for a legendary horn that can theoretically bring down the Wall. (And yes, Mark. This same point can be easily demonstrated for Stannis.)
So Mance is a very unique man, who makes Eddard look rather common. I have a feeling Samwell will be another such man, but I digress...
The timing of Mance's rise to beyond-Wall-kingship coincides with the disappearances of men of the Night's Watch, as well as the early omens/casualties experienced by various tribes of wildlings.
Thus, I propose that Waymar Royce was not the first black brother to fall to the Others since the end of the Long Night. Furthermore, I propose that in order for wildings to have become so desperate as to accept militarized leadership (Mance), from a foe no less, that they had been dealing with the rise of the cold ones in the night for quite some time.
My guess?
17 years.
Which brings me to my point/pet theory. Something allowed the Others to return 17 years ago, and it wasn't the birth of Jon Snow.
It was the disarmament of Arthur Dayne.
When a descendant of the Kings of Winter disarmed the Sword of the Morning, and claimed Dawn (the original Ice), it undid the victory of the first Sword of the Morning. The first Sword of the Morning (in my head-canon) ended the Long Night, and Ned ended the tradition of the Sword of the Morning.
I am slightly avoiding these, b/c I don't want them to be true. Lol.
But... but... they danced!
LOL
(Seriously though, can you guys even imagine how many 10-page essays would be written if it were canon that Lyanna had danced with Rhaegar at Harrenhal?)
Thus, I propose that Waymar Royce was not the first black brother to fall to the Others since the end of the Long Night. Furthermore, I propose that in order for wildings to have become so desperate as to accept militarized leadership (Mance), from a foe no less, that they had been dealing with the rise of the cold ones in the night for quite some time.
Here I am less sure. It seems to me that in AGOT, the ranger disappearances are a fairly new event- maybe going on for a few years (1-4 would be my guess) - longer than that, and it wouldn't be news. We also hear nothing in any POV that suggests wildlings have been fleeing south for some time, let alone claim they are running from the Others. If disappearances had been going on for 17 years, that's longer than Benjen has even been at the Wall. It would be a normal, expected occurrence, not something multiple characters bring up as being concerning.
Of course that doesn't mean that the "trigger event" was also recent. Craster, for example, has been giving up sons for quite some time, it seems. So the Others may have been awake and planning their next move for some time. But the Others being seen in the open and attacking/killing men, as well as the rising of the wights, IMO have to be somewhat recent.
When a descendant of the Kings of Winter disarmed the Sword of the Morning, and claimed Dawn (the original Ice), it undid the victory of the first Sword of the Morning. The first Sword of the Morning (in my head-canon) ended the Long Night, and Ned ended the tradition of the Sword of the Morning.
Dawn hangs in the south because Ned hung it.
But... surely, in 8,000 years, at least one other SOTM has been disarmed at some point. If those losses didn't trigger a LN, why did this one?
I propose an alternative, and one that kind of fits your miasma theory. Roughly 40 years ago, there was a great fire, with lots of magic involved, and GRRM steadfastly refuses to give us any real information about it while writing a whole separate series clearly leading up to it. That's right, Summerhall. A whole castle burned down (including any weirwood components - even after the fire the castle gives dreams/visions to Rhaegar- as well as a potential godswood), along with seven dragon's eggs, septons, pyromancers, a KG LC, and more king's blood than Mel could even dream of. If that didn't wake the Others, I don't know what would.
“In Qohor he is the Black Goat, in Yi Ti the Lion of Night, in Westeros the Stranger. All men must bow to him in the end, no matter if they worship the Seven or the Lord of Light, the Moon Mother or the Drowned God or the Great Shepherd. All mankind belongs to him... else somewhere in the world would be a folk who lived forever. Do you know of any folk who live forever?”
Thus, I propose that Waymar Royce was not the first black brother to fall to the Others since the end of the Long Night. Furthermore, I propose that in order for wildings to have become so desperate as to accept militarized leadership (Mance), from a foe no less, that they had been dealing with the rise of the cold ones in the night for quite some time.
Here I am less sure. It seems to me that in AGOT, the ranger disappearances are a fairly new event- maybe going on for a few years (1-4 would be my guess) - longer than that, and it wouldn't be news. We also hear nothing in any POV that suggests wildlings have been fleeing south for some time, let alone claim they are running from the Others. If disappearances had been going on for 17 years, that's longer than Benjen has even been at the Wall. It would be a normal, expected occurrence, not something multiple characters bring up as being concerning.
Of course that doesn't mean that the "trigger event" was also recent. Craster, for example, has been giving up sons for quite some time, it seems. So the Others may have been awake and planning their next move for some time. But the Others being seen in the open and attacking/killing men, as well as the rising of the wights, IMO have to be somewhat recent.
When a descendant of the Kings of Winter disarmed the Sword of the Morning, and claimed Dawn (the original Ice), it undid the victory of the first Sword of the Morning. The first Sword of the Morning (in my head-canon) ended the Long Night, and Ned ended the tradition of the Sword of the Morning.
Dawn hangs in the south because Ned hung it.
But... surely, in 8,000 years, at least one other SOTM has been disarmed at some point. If those losses didn't trigger a LN, why did this one?
I propose an alternative, and one that kind of fits your miasma theory. Roughly 40 years ago, there was a great fire, with lots of magic involved, and GRRM steadfastly refuses to give us any real information about it while writing a whole separate series clearly leading up to it. That's right, Summerhall. A whole castle burned down (including any weirwood components - even after the fire the castle gives dreams/visions to Rhaegar- as well as a potential godswood), along with seven dragon's eggs, septons, pyromancers, a KG LC, and more king's blood than Mel could even dream of. If that didn't wake the Others, I don't know what would.
A Dayne King knelt to Nymeria, and was exiled by her. But we have no tales of Dawn ever losing... (unless the "Long Night" itself is one such reference ).
More importantly than that, though, is the uniqueness of a Stark (KoW) disarming and killing a Dayne (SotM).
These are cosmic motifs, in my thinking. By defeating Dawn, Ned ensued that the real "winter is coming".
"I can see it. You have more of the north in you than your brothers."
More importantly than that, though, is the uniqueness of a Stark (KoW) disarming and killing a Dayne (SotM).
These are cosmic motifs, in my thinking. By defeating Dawn, Ned ensued that the real "winter is coming".
So... if Dawn had defeated the king of winter... would that have resulted in the summer that never ends? Was the mere fact that this match occurred guaranteed to end the world, regardless of the outcome?
“In Qohor he is the Black Goat, in Yi Ti the Lion of Night, in Westeros the Stranger. All men must bow to him in the end, no matter if they worship the Seven or the Lord of Light, the Moon Mother or the Drowned God or the Great Shepherd. All mankind belongs to him... else somewhere in the world would be a folk who lived forever. Do you know of any folk who live forever?”
but what I find most interesting is the timing of his ascent to power. It coincides nicely with Ned's worry of the state of the Night's Watch: Desertions and men gone missing.
Does it? When going to Gared's execution Robb is sure that he's a wildling sworn to Mance. Tales have already long reached Winterfell about Mance, the King-beyond-the-Wall. He had to have been King for a few years by that point otherwise why would Robb even know about him?
Even after the execution, Ned is only concerned with the fact that Gared was the 4th deserter in a single year, not that Gared deserted period. He clearly expects some deserters in a year, just not 4. It's the number of deserters that concerns him, not any desertion at all.
Mance flew down off the Wall into a complete leadership vacuum
Well not complete vacuum. Tormund and Styr were both trying to become King, as well as 3 other wildlings.
"I've never had a crown on my head or sat my arse on a bloody throne, if that's what you're asking," Mance replied. "My birth is as low as a man's can get, no septon's ever smeared my head with oils, I don't own any castles, and my queen wears furs and amber, not silk and sapphires. I am my own champion, my own fool, and my own harpist. You don't become King-beyond-the-Wall because your father was. The free folk won't follow a name, and they don't care which brother was born first. They follow fighters. When I left the Shadow Tower there were five men making noises about how they might be the stuff of kings. Tormund was one, the Magnar another. The other three I slew, when they made it plain they'd sooner fight than follow."
So he killed 3 of the other candidates trying to become King, and convinced Tormund and Styr to follow him. I don't think it's ever said how Tormund was convinced to follow Mance (he boasts he can outfight Mance but Mance is cunning so who knows the real story), but Styr fought Mance 3 times before he finally accepted him as his king.
"Aye, my lady. The Thenns have lords and laws." They know how to kneel. "They mine tin and copper for bronze, forge their own arms and armor instead of stealing it. A proud folk, and brave. Mance Rayder had to best the old Magnar thrice before Styr would accept him as King-Beyond-the-Wall."
So 6 men were trying to become King-beyond-the-Wall. Mance killed 3, beat the 4th 3x till he surrendered to Mance's will, and Tormund gave up his claim for whatever reason.
Either way, not really a power vacuum if 6 men were gunning for the same title.
I propose that Waymar Royce was not the first black brother to fall to the Others since the end of the Long Night. Furthermore, I propose that in order for wildings to have become so desperate as to accept militarized leadership (Mance), from a foe no less, that they had been dealing with the rise of the cold ones in the night for quite some time.
If disappearances had been going on for 17 years, that's longer than Benjen has even been at the Wall. It would be a normal, expected occurrence, not something multiple characters bring up as being concerning.
Of course that doesn't mean that the "trigger event" was also recent. Craster, for example, has been giving up sons for quite some time, it seems. So the Others may have been awake and planning their next move for some time. But the Others being seen in the open and attacking/killing men, as well as the rising of the wights, IMO have to be somewhat recent.
Gotta agree with Maestersam here, sorry Voice. Craster's an old man and has equally old wives, but no equally old sons. Not simply no sons with his recent wives. He's been sacrificing his sons for decades. He could've just been leaving them in a forest for a shadowcat for 40 years before the Others started being the ones coming, but it's the old wives who warn that the Others come for the sons, not the new wives.
The Others have been likely awake for a long time, and simply haven't stirred publicly until recently. Part of that necessarily has to do with simple numbers though. I mean their ability to raise the dead is impressive, but you need dead people first. The Others need to personally kill people (like the wildling raiding party and Waymar's party), then their wights can kill people (the attack on the Fist), and so forth. But it's not an ever expanding army until you actually get some decent numbers that make deaths guaranteed enough for a victory, and more importantly a victory where the Other itself doesn't die in the encounter.
Well if Mance = Arthur, then the same thing happened, no? Regardless, Arthur is no longer wielding Dawn. He's either dead and not wielding it, or he's alive and not wielding it.
Interestingly enough, prior to sparring Mance, Jon unleashes 3 groups of rangers into the north. Jon then agrees to spar Mance and Mance takes up a greatsword. During the fight Jon happens to disarm him when he tackles Mance as they both lose their swords in the fall. Later that same night Melisandre informs Jon that she has had a vision of 3 of his rangers dead.
So if Mance = Arthur, then the day the SOTM got disarmed again by a son of Winterfell 3 people died.
Seriously though, can you guys even imagine how many 10-page essays would be written if it were canon that Lyanna had danced with Rhaegar at Harrenhal?
I'd rather not. I've already heard enough stories about how they fell in love based off a paragraph that doesn't even say Rhaegar found the KOTLT's shield, let alone that Lyanna ever was said knight.
Your lordship lost a son at the Red Wedding. I lost four upon the Blackwater. And why? Because the Lannisters stole the throne. Go to King’s Landing and look on Tommen with your own eyes, if you doubt me. A blind man could see it. What does Stannis offer you? Vengeance. Vengeance for my sons and yours, for your husbands and your fathers and your brothers. Vengeance for your murdered lord, your murdered king, your butchered princes. Vengeance!
More importantly than that, though, is the uniqueness of a Stark (KoW) disarming and killing a Dayne (SotM).
These are cosmic motifs, in my thinking. By defeating Dawn, Ned ensued that the real "winter is coming".
So... if Dawn had defeated the king of winter... would that have resulted in the summer that never ends? Was the mere fact that this match occurred guaranteed to end the world, regardless of the outcome?
Well since you asked.... lol
No, in my head canon, Dawn already defeated the BtB/NK and sent the Others into a retreat. That retreat endured until Ned disarmed Arthur, and claimed Ice/Dawn.
"I can see it. You have more of the north in you than your brothers."
Does it? When going to Gared's execution Robb is sure that he's a wildling sworn to Mance. Tales have already long reached Winterfell about Mance, the King-beyond-the-Wall. He had to have been King for a few years by that point otherwise why would Robb even know about him?
Even after the execution, Ned is only concerned with the fact that Gared was the 4th deserter in a single year, not that Gared deserted period. He clearly expects some deserters in a year, just not 4. It's the number of deserters that concerns him, not any desertion at all.
I think you mistook me a bit. This was my point as well. I do not mean to suggest that the sad state of the Night's Watch is recent. To the contrary, I have a theory that the NW has been on the decline for 200 years. And, imo, the Others never stopped existing. They've only been in exile for 8000 years, biding their time and planning their return.
But what is time to a tree?
But, I think that Ned is dealing with a different brand of desertion. Gared's desertion is not normal. And I think it's safe to say that brothers fleeing the Night's Watch because of the Others is a fairly recent development.
I do not think that Gared and Will were the first Sworn Brothers to feel a queer edge to the darkness during Ned's lordship... but I think Gared was the first survivor of such close encounters to ever reach the Lord of Winterfell. I think that men like Gared and Will knew something was different. Their fear, to me, seems like a latent survival instinct. But I digress...
Ned, speaking to Catelyn: "The poor man was half-mad. Something had put a fear in him so deep that my words could not reach him."
This is not normal.
At least, this is not normal for Ned.
I think that north of the Wall, wildling communities would likely have been dealing with poor, half-mad, men and women who had been touched so deeply by fear all throughout Ned's tenure as lord. In fact, I think their troubles began just after Ned became lord, after he disarmed Arthur Dayne. But I don't want to derail this thread with more of that pet theory. I'll just stick to this timing-part of it. LOL
Well not complete vacuum. Tormund and Styr were both trying to become King, as well as 3 other wildlings.
"I've never had a crown on my head or sat my arse on a bloody throne, if that's what you're asking," Mance replied. "My birth is as low as a man's can get, no septon's ever smeared my head with oils, I don't own any castles, and my queen wears furs and amber, not silk and sapphires. I am my own champion, my own fool, and my own harpist. You don't become King-beyond-the-Wall because your father was. The free folk won't follow a name, and they don't care which brother was born first. They follow fighters. When I left the Shadow Tower there were five men making noises about how they might be the stuff of kings. Tormund was one, the Magnar another. The other three I slew, when they made it plain they'd sooner fight than follow."
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So he killed 3 of the other candidates trying to become King, and convinced Tormund and Styr to follow him. I don't think it's ever said how Tormund was convinced to follow Mance (he boasts he can outfight Mance but Mance is cunning so who knows the real story), but Styr fought Mance 3 times before he finally accepted him as his king.
"Aye, my lady. The Thenns have lords and laws." They know how to kneel. "They mine tin and copper for bronze, forge their own arms and armor instead of stealing it. A proud folk, and brave. Mance Rayder had to best the old Magnar thrice before Styr would accept him as King-Beyond-the-Wall."
So 6 men were trying to become King-beyond-the-Wall. Mance killed 3, beat the 4th 3x till he surrendered to Mance's will, and Tormund gave up his claim for whatever reason.
Either way, not really a power vacuum if 6 men were gunning for the same title.
Fair enough. I can concede that it was not a "complete" vacuum. And to your point, V6 was yet another petty-king beyond the Wall.
But I think the point stands that Mance flew down off the Wall into enough of a vacuum to permit him to be a viable candidate for KbtW. It should amaze us, in my opinion, that a somewhat-young veteran of the Night's Watch, a crow-come-over, rose to lead those-who-do-not-kneel.
That he also leads the Magnar of Thenn should also amaze us. 'Magnars' are in effect 'demigods'.
Mance might be a friendly musician, and knowledgeable of wildling culture, but he was of the enemy. Yet the wildlings came to accept him, and acknowledge him as their leader/king. For the Thenns, they even accept him as the leader/king of their own Magnar.
This tells me that the petty-kings beyond the Wall were all ill-equipped or too short-sighted to meet the need of the people, as the cold winds rose.
Gotta agree with Maestersam here, sorry Voice. Craster's an old man and has equally old wives, but no equally old sons. Not simply no sons with his recent wives. He's been sacrificing his sons for decades. He could've just been leaving them in a forest for a shadowcat for 40 years before the Others started being the ones coming, but it's the old wives who warn that the Others come for the sons, not the new wives.
LOL no need to be sorry. I like Maester Sam's argument too.
But I fail to see how Craster's old wife's comment in any way demonstrates the timing of the return of the Others.
We do not even know how long Craster has been marrying his daughters.
And, a wife also claims that the cold gods come for Craster's sheep.
Seems like they blame the gods quite a bit around their Keep.
The Others have been likely awake for a long time, and simply haven't stirred publicly until recently. Part of that necessarily has to do with simple numbers though. I mean their ability to raise the dead is impressive, but you need dead people first. The Others need to personally kill people (like the wildling raiding party and Waymar's party), then their wights can kill people (the attack on the Fist), and so forth. But it's not an ever expanding army until you actually get some decent numbers that make deaths guaranteed enough for a victory, and more importantly a victory where the Other itself doesn't die in the encounter.
Quite agree. But it would not take very long at all to raise an undead army.
Well if Mance = Arthur, then the same thing happened, no? Regardless, Arthur is no longer wielding Dawn. He's either dead and not wielding it, or he's alive and not wielding it.
Not the same, imo.
Arthur at the time was the SotM, and Ned was not the King of Winter. Ned made him not the SotM... and in the process... restored the authority of the Kings of Winter.
Interestingly enough, prior to sparring Mance, Jon unleashes 3 groups of rangers into the north. Jon then agrees to spar Mance and Mance takes up a greatsword. During the fight Jon happens to disarm him when he tackles Mance as they both lose their swords in the fall. Later that same night Melisandre informs Jon that she has had a vision of 3 of his rangers dead.
So if Mance = Arthur, then the day the SOTM got disarmed again by a son of Winterfell 3 people died.
I'd rather not. I've already heard enough stories about how they fell in love based off a paragraph that doesn't even say Rhaegar found the KOTLT's shield, let alone that Lyanna ever was said knight.
Dude. I know. LOL
"I can see it. You have more of the north in you than your brothers."
On the other hand though, isn't Gared himself not normal? Ned says he's the 4th this year, yet he never says the other 3 were half-mad like Gared was. If the 3 previous deserters deserted because of the Others, then shouldn't Ned find Gared to be similar to them instead of an anomaly like he is? He should be wondering why all the recent deserters are crazed instead of why only Gared is crazed. After all, he warns Bran that a typical deserter is a criminal who'll do anything because he knows his life is forfeit if he gets caught. He doesn't warn Bran that a typical deserter is a mad man.
Gared is an anomaly, not something that's been happening. There has been an increase in deserting, but nothing point to deserting based on the Others, at least not in the deserters Ned is catching. I mean, don't get me wrong, the Others definitely are a problem. But rangers still could suddenly find themselves seeing Mance's 100,000 strong army and say "fuck that" exactly like Ned thinks they are. He found Gared half crazed, but that doesn't mean the other deserters were too. He clearly got the idea that Mance is causing desertions somewhere, and Benjen hasn't written that Mance has attacked them in any force.
Mance might be a friendly musician, and knowledgeable of wildling culture, but he was of the enemy. Yet the wildlings came to accept him, and acknowledge him as their leader/king. For the Thenns, they even accept him as the leader/king of their own Magnar.
It is odd yes, but also keep in mind that as Mance points out, wildlings choose their leaders based on strength. Mance says he killed 3 of the wildlings who were trying to become KbtW. That's no mean feat as those 3 by wildling standards had to be great fighters. He also beat Styr 3 times too. Again, demonstrating his prowess. Tormund boasts that he can beat Mance in a fight but that he follows Mance because Mance is smarter than him, but I'm inclined to think it's more that Mance beat him too AND is smarter than him.
In which case, then Mance bested the 5 best wildlings the wildlings had to offer. He displayed his prowess undoubtedly through that alone. He killed other chieftains too as Jon mentions he won the rest over with his sword, his songs, or his negotiations. Again, more than proving he's still stronger than anybody else the wildlings had.
It is unusual that the wildlings accepted Mance as their king if you look at it solely as Mance is a former crow, but not really unusual when you look at it as Mance is a fighter. Strength has no culture, and Mance was stronger than everybody else. If you didn't like it you were free to tell Mance that and Mance was free to cave in your skull for your trouble. That settles the matter rather quickly, no?
But I fail to see how Craster's old wife's comment in any way demonstrates the timing of the return of the Others.
We do not even know how long Craster has been marrying his daughters.
Well Craster's first wife by logic probably is not his daughter. He needed somebody to create the first daughter after all. But we know he's been marrying his daughters for a very long time because Sam is confronted by two old women in ASOS and one of them says she's the mother of the other old woman
“Your mother can’t help you none,” said the old woman on the left. “That dead old man can’t neither. You take his sword and you take that big warm far cloak o’ his and you take his horse if you can find him. And you go.” “The girl don’t lie,” the old woman on the right said. “She’s my girl, and I beat the lying out of her early on. You said you’d help her. Do what Ferny says, boy. Take the girl and be quick about it.”
If Craster has two old wives, and one is the mother of the other, than by simple age he's been doing marrying his daughters for decades.
As to how they demonstrate the returning of the Others, it's more so that simply he has only old daughters. He doesn't have any old sons lying around, despite the fact that we know he can father sons. He's been sacrificing his sons therefore for years. It doesn't prove the Others were active then, but it does prove that Craster believes they were.
Ah, but see those studies rest on the fact that humans live in densely populated areas, full of hundreds of thousands to millions of people in a single city. Indeed, a zombie breakout in New York City would spread quite rapidly as you would rapidly gain strong numbers due to the sheer numbers present. We would indeed be fucked.
However, beyond the Wall there is only 100,000 people spread out across thousands and thousands of miles. There are no great cities. The wildlings live in small and distinct villages. Thus the problem of how the Others can actually gain an army of wights. You can wipe out a village of 20 wildlings, but then suddenly come on the next village and there's 50 of them and they wipe out your own wights. You then need to restart all over again. What if you finally get a few hundred and then come up against the Thenns, one of the larger and better equipped tribes? Can your few hundred work or are you defeated again? It's quite easy to see how the Others haven't been able to gain an army until recently. It's slow work when the wildlings are so spread out and don't live in great cities together.
And there's the environment factor too. The books might say cold preserves, but dead bodies will still break down trying to march through snow or up mountains like the Frostfangs. And shadow cats and snowbears and giant elks can still kill a wight. Defeating one village might end up meaning nothing if half your army breaks down on the 30 mile march to the next one.
Both the book and show made it a point that Hardhome is the first real victory in terms of recruiting for the Others. Thousands of people in one place dying helps out the Others immensely as they get thousands of troops. Once you have an army that big then yeah you're finally at the stage where you'll be next to impossible to beat as you can contend with any size of opponent.
"Well of course GRRM couldn't write such a thing. That would give away the central mystery of the series. He needs to disguise their love in subtle clues so that only the clever readers will figure out. RLJ is a reward for those clever enough to understand what GRRM is truly writing."
Your lordship lost a son at the Red Wedding. I lost four upon the Blackwater. And why? Because the Lannisters stole the throne. Go to King’s Landing and look on Tommen with your own eyes, if you doubt me. A blind man could see it. What does Stannis offer you? Vengeance. Vengeance for my sons and yours, for your husbands and your fathers and your brothers. Vengeance for your murdered lord, your murdered king, your butchered princes. Vengeance!
Hello everyone! I don't have anything intelligent of my own to add, but I did just stumble upon this youtube playlist that may be of interest to all the Dayne fans out there
thanks for posting these! very interesting theories.
For those interested, the following actually sits between part 3 & part 4:
I do like that they propose an explanation for the origins of Dalla and Val. Val in particular; and their theory would explain why Stannis keeps on referring to her as a 'princess' whilst Jon keeps on denying it.... and why Ghost takes to her so quickly.
I have not seen how they equate the children as the 'great enemy'. So at this stage, i am not convinced. If so, then BR must be their prisoner, but then how is he orchestrating his plan?
There is the occasional shortcut, eg wildlings would not know about maesters, but, hey, that is just a misdemeanor.
"Arya did not dare take a bath, even though she smelled as bad as Yoren by now, all sour and stinky. Some of the creatures living in her clothes had come all the way from Flea Bottom with her; it didn’t seem right to drown them."
Hello everyone! I don't have anything intelligent of my own to add, but I did just stumble upon this youtube playlist that may be of interest to all the Dayne fans out there
thanks for posting these! very interesting theories.
For those interested, the following actually sits between part 3 & part 4:
I do like that they propose an explanation for the origins of Dalla and Val. Val in particular; and their theory would explain why Stannis keeps on referring to her as a 'princess' whilst Jon keeps on denying it.... and why Ghost takes to her so quickly.
I have not seen how they equate the children as the 'great enemy'. So at this stage, i am not convinced. If so, then BR must be their prisoner, but then how is he orchestrating his plan?
There is the occasional shortcut, eg wildlings would not know about maesters, but, hey, that is just a misdemeanor.
YouTuber Tony Teflon has a series about the Children of the forest being the true enemies. I certainly think they are up to no good.
Darkstar will be the next Vulture King.
Craster has 19 daughters and there are 19 castles on the Wall, coincidence I think not!
And, a wife also claims that the cold gods come for Craster's sheep.
Agreed, and that's not what I was basing it on. Let me see if I can explain how I view it.
1) Craster marries his daughters, and they give him more daughters. This seems to be an accepted fact among the rangers of the NW. Which means he has been marrying his daughters for quite some time, yes? Not just one or two of them, in the last 4-5 years.
2) In order for Craster to "marry" his daughters, his daughters have to be at least 13 or 14 years old. Sure, he could have a ceremony before that, but hopefully he is not a pedophile (and in either case, a younger girl than that will not be giving him additional daughters).
3) Gilly is not Craster's oldest daughter-wife. Why? Because when we meet her, she is pregnant with (presumably) her first child. I am basing this on the fact that A) she did not have a (female) toddler by her side, or mention to Sam that they were leaving her daughter behind, B) she never mentioned that any previous son had been given to the woods, and C) Sam is really into her, and there is no mention of her being considerably older than him. If she is, as I think we all assume (?), between 14-16, she likely hasn't had multiple children. So if the baby she runs away with was her first (or even her second), and Craster's daughters have been "giving him more daughters" for some time, he must have several daughters older than Gilly who have already been giving him more daughters.
4) Ok, so if he has daughters who are older than Gilly- even if the oldest are only in their early 20's - then that suggests that he has been also having sons for 20+ years. Yet Craster is the only male in his keep, and even his oldest wives talk as if their sons had always been given to the woods. There is no mention of older boys being around and then one day being sent away. So, putting all this together, I feel like it makes a fairly strong argument for Craster having been sacrificing his boys for more than 17 years.
Of course, we don't know that the Others have been taking them for all that time - but it's a strange custom that most people wouldn't come up with on their own, AND Craster explicitly tells the NW that he has an understanding with the gods and that they leave him alone in exchange for sacrifices. He seems quite confident in this - so confident in fact that he is the ONLY wildling we have met who chose not to flee south. And, to back up his view, it does seem like he has been left alone by the Others. And the night Jon sees him take the baby out, it does get exceptionally cold, yet nobody is attacked. Lots of strange coincidences; too many almost. [Not to mention the wights that follow Sam and Gilly, trying to get to her baby]
In light of all this, I feel fairly confident that, in the present, the Others are taking Craster's babies. So the question is: how long have they been doing this for? It's possible, in theory, that they've only been taking them for the 1-3 years that rangers have been disappearing and wildlings have been rising as wights. In that case, all the babies before this have been dying of exposure or eaten by shadowcats. I find this somewhat unlikely, especially given that Craster's wives seem confident that they are returning to get their brothers, but it's certainly possible. So in that case, the Others have been awake for only a few years, 4-5 tops. The other option is that they have been taking them for much longer. In that case, though, it seems more likely to me that they've been taking them for as long as they've been offered (20+ years, possibly up to 40), rather than a somewhat arbitrary 17 years. There just isn't any evidence in the text that would make me think 17 years specifically. It's not impossible, but, IMO, no more likely than 10 years, or 20, or 40.
In general, it seems unlikely to me that this one duel was the most significant event to happen over a span of 8,000 years. That is an insanely long time for these extremely powerful beings to wait on a Stark to kill a SOTM [if indeed he did kill him]. And besides, Ned did not claim Dawn- this was demonstrated by him personally riding all the way to Starfall (probably a journey of several weeks) to return the sword to House Dayne. Ned didn't want Dawn, he wanted to be rid of it as soon as possible.
But hey, I know you've been right on unlikely theories before, so I am prepared to eat crow if it should become necessary down the line.
“In Qohor he is the Black Goat, in Yi Ti the Lion of Night, in Westeros the Stranger. All men must bow to him in the end, no matter if they worship the Seven or the Lord of Light, the Moon Mother or the Drowned God or the Great Shepherd. All mankind belongs to him... else somewhere in the world would be a folk who lived forever. Do you know of any folk who live forever?”