How Tywin Took Lyanna with the Porcupine Knight
May 12, 2016 23:03:29 GMT
voice, Lady Dyanna, and 10 more like this
Post by SlyWren on May 12, 2016 23:03:29 GMT
How Tywin Took Lyanna with the Porcupine Knight
VERY SHORT VERSION: Tywin wanted Aerys dead and Rhaegar as king. He tried using the Defiance of Duskendale to achieve this. It almost worked. Then Aerys took Jaime. Given his ruthless history, Tywin would do almost anything to destroy enemies. Getting others to take Lyanna and blame Rhaegar would start a war to depose Aerys while letting Tywin play both sides. ETA: Even if Lyanna ran away from Tywin's men, as Arya runs from Cersei's, Tywin could still use missing Lyanna to start his war: he'd just need to lie to Brandon.
Tywin likely used the knights shamed by the Knight of the Laughing Tree to do this: Two Towers, Pitchfork, and Porcupine. ETA: Whether Rheagar fully knew the extent of Tywin's plans or not, at some point he went along with the plan. Because one way or another, Rhaegar needed his father off of the throne.
Part I: Set Up and Shout Outs
I’ve argued that the Bael Tale strongly suggests that Lyanna was taken out of politics and spite, not love or prophecy. And that Aerys fits this Bael type. asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?/topic/136630-de-romancing-the-rose-bael-politics-kinslaying-and-spite/I stand by that argument—Aerys is a good candidate. But, as others have argued before me, Tywin also fits as the Bael-like plotter waging a long-term feud.
Melisandra and Lady Dyanna first introduced me to the idea that the Lannisters might be behind Lyanna’s kidnapping. I resisted—my apologies to both of them. Lady Dyanna 's thread is here: thelasthearth.com/thread/178/why-all-lannister-ned
Melisandra's essay is no longer posted—but she’s more than earned a huge shout out from me.
J. Stargaryen has been arguing on the Westeros RLJ thread for a while that Rhaegar had political motives in taking Lyanna:
asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?/topic/137649-rlj-v160/&page=10#comment-7543620
Rippounet has made similar arguments: asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?/topic/137649-rlj-v160/&do=findComment&comment=7539632
And voice argues that Rhaegar wanted Jaime to kill Aerys. thelasthearth.com/thread/417/rhaegars-catspaw-assassin
In short—my speculation was sparked by a lot of other people’s ideas.
Disclaimer: I do not assert that the posters listed above agree with the following hypotheticals.
Part II: Tywin and Aerys: A Westerosi Death Match.
1. Aerys rejected Tywin’s proposal to marry Cersei to Rhaegar. He refused to appoint Jaime as Rhaegar’s squire and appointed Tywin’s enemies instead. Aerys didn’t call Tywin a craven as the Stark in Winterfell called Bael. But he did call Proud Lion Tywin a “servant.” Ouch.
2. Tywin tried to use the Darklyns’ rebellion to depose Aerys without getting his hands dirty. If storming the town had gotten Aerys killed, Tywin could crown Rhaegar while playing the loyalist. With Cersei as Rhaegar’s queen. It almost worked. But even in failure, Tywin had plausible deniability.
Most of the small council were with the Hand outside Duskendale at this juncture, and several of them argued against Lord Tywin's plan on the grounds that such an attack would almost certainly goad Lord Darklyn into putting King Aerys to death. "He may or he may not," Tywin Lannister reportedly replied, "but if he does, we have a better king right here." Whereupon he raised a hand to indicate Prince Rhaegar.
Scholars have debated ever since as to Lord Tywin's intent. Did he believe Lord Darklyn would back down? Or was he, in truth, willing, and perhaps even eager, to see Aerys die so that Prince Rhaegar might take the Iron Throne? World Book: The Targaryen Kings: Aerys II
Scholars have debated ever since as to Lord Tywin's intent. Did he believe Lord Darklyn would back down? Or was he, in truth, willing, and perhaps even eager, to see Aerys die so that Prince Rhaegar might take the Iron Throne? World Book: The Targaryen Kings: Aerys II
Jaime's investiture freed him from Lysa Tully. Elsewise, nothing went as planned. His father had never been more furious. He could not object openly—Cersei had judged that correctly—but he resigned the Handship on some thin pretext and returned to Casterly Rock, taking his daughter with him. Storm, Jaime II
5. At both Duskendale and the Red Wedding, Tywin used others’ motives to destroy enemies and give himself cover. Duskendale failed. But Tywin got the Red Wedding right.
6. So, after Aerys took Jaime, Tywin likely decided to scale things up: start a war to destroy Aerys and put the Lannisters in power.
Part III: Using Other People’s Grievances to Start Your Own War
1. So, would Tywin incite rebellion by taking Lyanna himself? Perhaps as Catelyn took Tyrion in the Riverlands near Harrenhal. Seizing a chance opportunity for revenge.
2. But Tywin had no known grievance against the Starks at the time. Plus, Catelyn took Tyrion on “evidence” from Baelish, who wanted to start a war. Baelish, like Tywin at Duskendale and the Red Wedding, used Catelyn’s motives to further his own aims with Tyrion’s “arrest.” And Cat had no idea she was being used.
3. Tywin, like Baelish, needed to keep his hands clean so he could play both sides as he had at Duskendale. If Rhaegar lost, Tywin needed to be in a position to plausibly join the rebels.
4. So, Tywin could use someone else’s motives to incite war. But whom to use? The Starks, Tullys, Baratheons, and Arryns were intermarrying and uniting. Aerys was paranoid of potential threats to his reign. If Tywin could get these houses and Aerys angry enough at each other, he could start his war.
5. Lyanna’s kidnapping and Brandon’s reaction led to Aerys’ killing Rickard and Brandon. War ensued. Very effective. No wonder Baelish used a similar technique.
6. So, who actually took Lyanna? Whose grievance could Tywin exploit to keep his hands clean? The Knight of the Laughing Tree’s opponents give us a potential clue.
CONTINUED IN NEXT POST